Recently, traders in the options market have been changing their tone.

The market's view on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026 has shifted significantly. This turning point occurred last Friday—the day when the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, directly breaking market expectations of a rate cut this month.

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool also confirms this: the probability of the Federal Reserve holding steady at its first three meetings of the year has increased substantially. The further out you look, the more likely it is that rates will remain unchanged.

It's clear how traders are acting. Currently, new options positions are mainly concentrated in January and March, but they are not betting on rate cuts—they are on the defensive, hedging against the risk of an "indefinite delay" in rate cuts. More aggressive players are even starting to position in longer-dated options, aiming to profit from a scenario where the Fed maintains rates unchanged throughout the year.

These trading actions reveal a new consensus: the interest rate market is being re-priced, and the timetable for policy shifts has been extended. The entire market's expectations are adjusting accordingly.