2026-01-15 04:20:51

Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon—Bitcoin is showing a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. The first wave of decline has already come to an end, and it is now in a rebound phase. This rally is quite fierce; once BTC surges to the 98,000–100,000 range, the bears will need to reassess their positions, and the bulls may also fall into FOMO. The problem is that market liquidity is indeed very tight right now, which is not a good sign.

From a weekly perspective, BTC is currently in a B-wave rebound during a downtrend. This rebound cycle might last longer than expected, and there is even a chance it could reach above 100,000. However, a major correction at a larger scale may not occur until around March, so at this stage, it’s more prudent to prepare for a prolonged short position.

Even more interesting is the market discussion about the four-year cycle. If BTC can truly hit a new high in 2026 but the trend completely breaks the established four-year cycle logic, then things will be a big deal—this would mean the entire market’s belief system might need to be reconstructed. Once the cycle failure becomes a consensus, market narratives will be greatly simplified, and the difficulty of making money afterward will only increase. So, it’s wise to start adapting to this change now.

BTC1.75%

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AirdropHunter007

· 6h ago

Head and shoulders top? Liquidity crunch? Do you really believe that? It seems more like the main players are just shaking out the weak hands. Wait, you say there's a chance for 100,000? Then why not go all in and make a move? FOMO is already here anyway. If the four-year cycle really becomes invalid, then us folks who rely on cycles to make a living will truly be unemployed, haha. A correction in March? Bro, I already bet that 5k is starting to come down now. Liquidity crunch is real, but I feel a bit guilty about this round of gains.

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JustHodlIt

· 6h ago

Head and shoulders top? Liquidity crunch? I've heard these explanations too many times, and in the end, it just went up again. It only corrected in March, so what should I do now? Wait and die? Breaking the four-year cycle is truly terrifying. How will those who rely on charts to make money survive then? The rebound from 98k to 100k was fierce, but what I fear more is a false breakout. Instead of obsessing over technicals now, it's better to strengthen your mental resilience. The market is always reshaping beliefs.

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PhantomMiner

· 6h ago

Liquidity crunch is a sign of an impending problem. This rebound is fierce, but I always feel there might be a trap ahead. Can it really hold above 100,000? I'm a bit skeptical. The four-year cycle failure is truly terrifying. Who will still know how to play then? This rebound cycle is longer than expected... I think it's better to reduce my position first. Once the head and shoulders pattern is confirmed, it's game over. We're dancing on the edge of a cliff right now. Both the bears and the bulls should be cautious; no one can hold the market. Starting to lose money once it hits 100,000—I'm not willing to bet on that. Cycle failure = increased difficulty in making money. Better to recognize this early. FOMO is the most harmful thing; just looking at it is annoying.

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SignatureCollector

· 6h ago

Head and shoulders top? Here we go again, every time they say it's going to crash, but instead it rises to a breathless level, it's uncomfortable. --- Liquidity crunch is indeed a bit creepy, let's wait until 100,000. --- If the four-year cycle fails, then everything we've learned in these years was for nothing? We need to start exploring again. --- The judgment that B-wave rebound cycles are long still makes sense, but will there really be a drop in March? I remain cautious. --- Earning money is becoming increasingly difficult, this hits too close to home. The current difficulty is indeed much greater than before. --- FOMO is the most deadly emotion. Seeing prices rise and wanting to chase is the fastest way to lose money, so you must resist. --- If the cycle truly fails completely, those analysts who rely on historical patterns to make a living will be unemployed haha. --- Liquidity tightness is not a small issue; it means a sudden crash could happen at any time, better be prepared. --- The 100,000 mark is indeed a hurdle. Once broken, we really need to reassess the market outlook.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 6h ago

I quite agree with the point about liquidity tightening; the 98k-100k range is indeed a hurdle. We'll see who is swimming naked when the time comes. Wait, has the cycle really become invalid? What should we do now? What will we rely on to judge in the future? B-wave rebound is so fierce, it's a bit unsettling, isn't it? The true test in March—should we sell now or accumulate? I'm torn. Head and shoulders top sounds scary, hopefully it's not a trap. Once market narratives are simplified, retail investors' profit opportunities might really disappear.

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MetaverseHobo

· 6h ago

Head and shoulders top? B-wave rebound? I feel like the technicals keep changing every time... Anyway, I’m optimistic about the 100,000 mark, we’ll see then. Liquidity crunch is real, that’s the most heartbreaking part. What FOMO is there? Four-year cycle invalid? Then all these years of chart watching were for nothing, the belief system has collapsed and we need to re-study the rules. The adjustment was only in March, so we still have to endure... A long-term short position sounds exhausting.

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YieldHunter

· 6h ago

ngl, if liquidity stays this tight through the 98k push, the risk-adjusted metrics just don't look sustainable... b-wave or not, that's the real tell imo

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