Prediction market participants are currently positioning for increased volatility. But here's the thing—does the pricing really reflect the underlying risk? When traders pour capital into escalation scenarios on these platforms, it doesn't always mean the bet is as straightforward as it appears on the surface. The crowd sentiment in derivatives and prediction markets can diverge sharply from fundamentals. Sometimes what looks like a consensus trade is just consensus mispricing. Worth digging deeper into the actual liquidity, position sizing, and whether these price signals are genuine conviction or just positioning noise.