This morning, ETH surged straight from 3050 to 3312, a gain of over 200 points in 2 hours. Someone posted a screenshot showing a 50% unrealized profit, while others in the community are urgently asking, "Is there still a chance to get in now?" But this wave of increase isn't that simple—it’s the result of multiple factors resonating together. Those who step in at the wrong moment often end up being the ones catching the top.

What is behind this rise? Let’s look at it from three perspectives.

**First, macro liquidity shift.** Federal Reserve official Barkin spoke this morning, with the probability of a rate cut in March exceeding 70%. As soon as this news broke, the US dollar index dropped by 0.3%. For the crypto market, a weaker dollar means abundant liquidity, making it easier for funds to flow into high-yield assets. Historical data shows that every time a rate cut is expected to materialize, ETH tends to rebound (last November, it rose by 15%).

**Second, the Matthew effect of Bitcoin.** BTC touched the 98,000 mark this morning, just one step away from the round number of 100,000. Spot ETF net inflows exceeded $2 billion in a single day. As the second-largest asset in the market, ETH has always been a pioneer in following Bitcoin’s lead. The big fish eat the meat, the smaller ones drink the soup—that’s the usual industry logic.

**Third, on-chain whales are accumulating.** This morning, there was a sudden surge in large transfers on the ETH chain, with a top address withdrawing 12,000 ETH from an exchange (about $39 million). This is a typical signal of major players building positions. A similar operation occurred in November last year, after which ETH entered a sustained upward trend.

So, the seemingly impressive 2-hour increase is actually the result of positive news, strong technical momentum, and on-chain signals resonating together. But the market always tests human nature—chasing the rally is easy, but surviving to see the next day is the real skill.