#美联储政策与会议 Looking at the latest CME data, the probability of maintaining interest rates in January has stabilized at 85.1%, which is a quite clear signal. Compared to the 15.5% expectation of rate cuts a week ago, the market's attitude has shifted noticeably—from a wait-and-see stance to a more hawkish outlook.

The key point to watch is the cumulative probability of rate cuts in March, with 45.2% maintaining vs. 48.3% rate cut. There is still uncertainty here, indicating that the market has differing views on policies after Q1. The 13% rate cut probability from Polymarket compared to CME's 18.3% also shows a discrepancy, which often signals trading opportunities.

From an on-chain perspective, increased policy certainty often triggers reallocation of funds—risk assets may face short-term pressure, but attention should also be paid to whether large holders are front-running the moves. It is recommended to closely monitor whale addresses' flow between stablecoins and mainstream assets; after the minutes are released, the fund flow will be more informative.