#BTC - 12M Candle Pattern: What This Cycle Is Really Telling Us 👇

For three consecutive cycles, Bitcoin followed a clear rhythm: G, G, G, R, three green 🟢 yearly candles followed by one red 🔴.

This cycle has already deviated: We now have G, G, R, ?
That deviation matters. It does not mean the cycle is broken. It means the structure is evolving rather than repeating.

Markets evolve, Liquidity evolves, Participant behavior evolves. So the real question is no longer whether history will repeat but:
What is the most probable outcome for Year 4?

🟢 Scenario 1: Year 4 prints GREEN (≈55–65% probability)
This would imply:
▫️Year 3 red was a cooling/reset candle, not a macro reversal
▫️Structure remains intact
▫️Market is transitioning back toward expansion
▫️Historically, when a “premature red year” appears inside an uptrend, the following year often becomes a recovery candle, momentum rebuilds, confidence returns, and higher highs resume.

But this still requires confirmation, not hope:
✅Strong monthly closes above $105k
✅Price holding above macro structure ( $90K)
✅Monthly RSI reclaiming 60
✅No breakdown of higher-timeframe support
✅This is the bullish continuation path.

🔴 Scenario 2: Year 4 prints RED (≈35–45% probability)

This would suggest:
▫️The cycle is compressing, not collapsing
▫️Market needs more time to digest prior expansion
▫️Distribution / consolidation phase extends
▫️This is where many get confused.

A second red year does not automatically mean bear market crash. More often, it means:
🔻 slower market
🔻wider ranges
🔻longer patience phase
🔻cycle stretches, not ends
🔻This is a cycle extension scenario, not a death sentence.

No hype. No fear. Just structure.