Arthur Hayes analyzes: Why Bitcoin may underperform in 2025 and why it could rebound in 2026

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Arthur Hayes Explains Why Bitcoin Fell in 2025 and Why It Will Surge in 2026 Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/arthur-hayes-explica-por-que-o-bitcoin-caiu-em-2025-e-por-que-vai-disparar-em-2026/ Against the backdrop of Bitcoin underperforming while gold and US tech stocks rose in 2025, investor and leading derivatives exchange founder Arthur Hayes shared his views, believing the market misjudged the direction.

In an article published on January 14, he argued that Bitcoin’s poor performance last year was a direct result of a contraction in US dollar liquidity, and the turning point in 2026 could be similarly “simple”: if the dollar floods the market again, Bitcoin tends to rebound strongly.

Hayes’s Core Argument

Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s performance is highly sensitive to the “pulse” of US dollar liquidity. In fact, when credit expands and capital flows are convenient, risk appetite increases, and assets like Bitcoin tend to benefit. Conversely, when the opposite occurs, prices come under pressure. He states that 2025 was precisely such a case: US dollar liquidity declined, and Bitcoin “did what it was supposed to do,” following the downward flow.

Hayes directly compared Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100, analyzing them with his “US dollar liquidity” indicator. Surprisingly to many, he pointed out that Bitcoin’s decline was not unusual, but gold and large tech stocks rose despite monetary tightening — which seemed contradictory. It was from this surface contradiction that he argued these three assets each responded to different driving forces in 2025.

Logic Behind Asset Performance

Gold: Hayes believes the main buyers are not retail investors but central banks and governments, which purchase to reduce political risks rather than seek “optimal prices.” Two confidence crises accelerated this shift: the 2008 financial crisis (requiring massive intervention by the Federal Reserve) and especially 2022, when the US froze reserves related to Russia, reinforcing the perception that US Treasuries could face confiscation risks.

Tech Stocks: Hayes advocates that the market followed a different logic, with the AI race becoming a national strategic goal, both in China and the US. Under this understanding, the industry gained political protection and prioritized capital access, helping explain why the Nasdaq 100 was able to break free from the liquidity tightening that suppressed Bitcoin in 2025.

Turning Point in 2026

Hayes states that if 2025 was a year of contraction, 2026 is very likely to reverse the situation because the conditions for US dollar liquidity expansion are forming. He summarized his “three pillars” of US dollar liquidity surge: the Fed expanding its balance sheet through regular asset purchases, increasing bank credit to strategic sectors, and stimulating the real estate market to lower mortgage rates.

He reminds that the Fed ended its quantitative tightening (QT) cycle in December and shifted to a new purchase program, which, according to his calculations, adds at least $40 billion to the balance sheet each month. Meanwhile, he sees commercial banks accelerating credit growth, citing financing initiatives targeting strategic industries, including plans announced by a major bank involving trillions of dollars over multiple years for sectors related to security and economic resilience.

The third vector is the real estate market. Hayes mentions directives requiring entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to channel capital into MBS (mortgage-backed securities) purchases, aiming to lower mortgage rates, facilitate refinancing, and enhance the “wealth effect” — thereby boosting demand for risk assets.

For Hayes, the consequence is straightforward: if US dollar liquidity truly accelerates, Bitcoin tends to follow. He even suggests “forget 2025,” to avoid concluding that Bitcoin has “failed,” because what is missing is monetary fuel — not narrative.

Investment Positioning

Hayes states he wants to increase risk exposure, not through derivatives, but by holding Bitcoin-related companies and tools to seek “leverage” exposure, mentioning a well-known publicly traded company (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet. He also notes that if Bitcoin returns to around $110,000, these stocks could attract capital inflows, potentially outperforming Bitcoin itself due to their inherent leverage.

Additionally, he plans to continue increasing positions in Zcash (ZEC), interpreting changes within the project ecosystem as opportunities to buy at a “discount.”