Bank of Italy Signals Steady Economic Expansion Despite Global Headwinds

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Italy appears to have avoided a late-year slowdown, with economic activity holding up better than expected despite mounting global pressures.

A new assessment from the Bank of Italy suggests the country carried modest momentum into the end of the year, helped by a combination of resilient domestic demand and improving conditions in parts of the industrial sector.

Key Takeaways

• Italy’s economy appears to have maintained modest momentum toward the end of the year
• Growth has been supported mainly by services, while industry shows early signs of recovery
• Manufacturing faces ongoing pressure from stronger competition, particularly from China
• Stable growth remains crucial for funding government policies while keeping public finances under control

A services-driven economy absorbs external shocks

Rather than manufacturing leading the way, Italy’s recent performance has leaned heavily on services. Business-oriented services, in particular, have continued to expand, providing a stabilizing force at a time when international trade conditions remain challenging. This services strength has helped cushion the economy against weaker external demand and slowing growth elsewhere in Europe.

Industry, meanwhile, has begun to show signs of life after a difficult period. The central bank noted a tentative recovery in industrial activity, although officials remain cautious about how durable that rebound will be. Competition from Chinese manufacturers is intensifying, and this pressure is expected to weigh on Italian producers, especially in export-oriented segments.

Steady growth, not a breakout year

Looking ahead, policymakers are not anticipating a dramatic acceleration. Italy’s economy is still projected to grow around 0.6% this year, in line with previous forecasts. Beyond that, growth is expected to gradually firm through the second half of the decade, assuming global conditions do not deteriorate sharply.

This outlook reflects a familiar pattern for Italy: limited upside, but also limited downside as long as domestic demand remains intact. The central bank’s tone suggests confidence in stability rather than optimism about rapid expansion.

Fiscal policy walks a narrow path

Economic performance is closely linked to the government’s budget strategy under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Rome has committed to keeping the budget deficit at around 3% of gross domestic product this year, while assuming growth of roughly 0.7%. That framework is designed to preserve fiscal credibility while still leaving room for targeted support measures.

The government has made tax relief for middle-income households and financial assistance for families a priority. Delivering on those promises without unsettling investors or EU partners depends heavily on Italy maintaining at least modest economic growth.

Why “moderate” growth is still critical

For a country with one of Europe’s highest public debt burdens, even small growth rates matter. Consistent expansion helps stabilize debt dynamics, supports employment, and gives policymakers room to maneuver. A prolonged stall, by contrast, would quickly complicate fiscal plans and limit policy options.

The latest signals from the Bank of Italy suggest that the economy is navigating a difficult global environment with relative resilience. Still, the outlook hinges on whether services can continue to offset industrial weakness and whether manufacturers can adapt to rising international competition.

In short, Italy is not accelerating, but it is still moving forward – and in the current global climate, that alone carries significance.