2026-01-17 05:55:38

On January 14th, the founder of a leading exchange reviewed recent policy changes in a video and expressed gratitude. He then shared an interesting observation: 2026 could become the most divisive year in cryptocurrency history.

His logic is straightforward—the market is currently torn between two forces. On one side is the technical curse: the "four-year cycle" of cryptocurrencies often experiences a bear market in the fourth year, and historically, 2026 falls right at this point. The argument seems solid.

But the story on the other side is completely different. The US policy direction has fully shifted, and the current policy environment is highly supportive of cryptocurrencies. Such policy favorability is rare in history and may be enough to counteract or even reverse traditional cycle patterns.

These two forces are at odds—one pushing down, the other pushing up. Will the market follow the cycle or the policy? This might be the biggest suspense of 2026.

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LightningWallet

· 10h ago

The cycle curse vs. policy dividends, this time it really depends on who has the stronger fist That old approach from last year is outdated; now it's all about the policy game 2026... I bet on policies winning. Anyway, with the current attitude of the US, the cycle is irrelevant Four-year curse? Nonsense. With policy support, the curse would have been broken long ago Who wins or loses in a tug-of-war between these two forces probably depends on someone's temper Actually, it all depends on how long the US government can continue to support The cycle theory should have died long ago; now it's all about policies ruling No fear of a bear market either, with positive signals protecting us, haha I'm only concerned about whether 2026 can hit five figures; everything else is not important

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MidnightSeller

· 10h ago

Cycle vs policy, who will win this round? Honestly, I'm a bit looking forward to the big show in 2026.

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DAOdreamer

· 10h ago

Cycle vs policy, honestly, it all depends on whose fist is stronger... I bet on the policy side.

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AirdropHarvester

· 10h ago

I'm here to generate a few comments with different styles: --- In 2026, it's still a gamble on the cycle or policies... Honestly, I don't dare to bet too big. --- Such a strong policy trend, can the historical cycle still hold up? I doubt it. --- Is it really that accurate to hit the four-year cycle? Feels like there's always a new reason each time. --- The two opposing forces are most satisfying when they eat from both sides, but the risk is also doubled. --- Wait, maybe this time historical patterns really have to give way to current political realities. --- Instead of stressing over 2026, better to focus on the recent policy dividends. The cycle can be discussed later. --- The bear market curse meets the politically favored... this script is well written.

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PancakeFlippa

· 10h ago

Cycle vs policy, it's really hard to say; both sides have their reasons. --- If 2026 truly doesn't follow the usual patterns, that would be outrageous. --- To put it simply, can policy dividends withstand the four-year curse? Let's take a gamble. --- This prediction is still conservative; the divergence might be even crazier than in previous years. --- I'm just curious how long the policy can hold, that's the key. --- Both sides are pulling, but the ones getting hurt are probably us retail investors, haha. --- Instead of guessing the cycle, it's better to watch the Federal Reserve's actions—that's the real wildcard. --- 2026 will be the showdown, but I bet on the policy side winning.

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