2026-01-19 06:45:19

Recent population data has been released, and a few numbers are quite sobering.

Let's start with the most straightforward—birth rates have plummeted to a "cliff." The total number of births in the year was 7.92 million, down by 1.62 million compared to 2024, a decline of nearly 17%. This is not just a month-over-month decrease but a record low in history. What does this mean? It’s equivalent to losing over 4,400 newborns every day.

This trend reflects more than just a decline in fertility willingness; it signals a profound transformation in the entire population structure. The young workforce is shrinking, while on the other hand, the population aged 60 and above continues to grow. Aging is coming on rapidly and intensely.

For those of us paying attention to macro trends, what does this inflection point signify?

**First, the engine of economic growth is shifting gears.** The sharp decline in birth rates means that the labor supply over the next 10-20 years will face significant pressure. The demographic dividend is gradually turning into a demographic debt, marking a long-term reversal in economic trends.

**Second, social security and pension pressures will intensify.** The burden coefficient for pensions will rise, and the pressure on social security payments will increase, ultimately affecting macro policy directions. Whether in fiscal spending or monetary policy, new constraints are likely to emerge.

**Third, asset allocation strategies need to be adjusted.** Changes in the population structure will reshape the long-term return expectations for various assets. The real estate market, stock market, and even crypto assets will need to be re-evaluated in terms of allocation weightings. A decrease in young people means fewer first-time homebuyers; an increase in the elderly population means consumption will tilt toward healthcare, eldercare, and related sectors.

In plain terms, these population data are telling us— the future economic landscape is already changing, and investment strategies based on population growth assumptions may need to be recalculated.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

9 Likes

Reward
9
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AirdropHunter9000

· 17h ago

Wow, 7.92 million is really incredible. Time to reconfigure the assets.

View OriginalReply0

4am_degen

· 17h ago

Damn, this data is really incredible. Only 4,400 fewer kids every day?

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeDodger

· 17h ago

Cliff-like decline, now it's time to recalculate.

View OriginalReply0

PretendingToReadDocs

· 17h ago

Cliff-like decline, I need to reconfigure my assets.

View OriginalReply0

FloorPriceWatcher

· 17h ago

Cliff-like decline, what does it indicate? It means the old investment logic has completely collapsed and needs to be readjusted. The era of population debt has arrived. How to play in the crypto world? Thinking... 7.92 million, this number is a bit terrifying... Aging accelerates, asset allocation is being reshuffled, how to position in crypto? Birthrate hits a new low, indicating that the purchasing power of young people is weakening, which has a significant impact on asset valuation. The demographic dividend is reversing. What should we buy low and sell high? It still depends on how policies respond. Losing 4,400 children daily? In the long run, this is fatal to the entire economic system. Pension pressure is skyrocketing, the government will definitely have to loosen fiscal policy, and there might still be opportunities in this wave.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHustler