The New Landscape of the 2026 Crypto Market: The Triangular Game Among Governments, Enterprises, and Capital

Should Investors Enter Now?

For investors seeking returns in the short term (four to five years), the current environment may not be the best timing, especially if this cycle follows historical patterns. However, those focused on long-term value storage still have opportunities to participate. As Fidelity Digital Assets Vice President of Research Chris Kuiper states: “From a long-term perspective, if you view Bitcoin as a store of value, given its fixed supply cap, any purchase is an investment to hedge against inflation risks.”

What is the basis for this judgment? The crypto market in 2026 is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The collective entry of governments, corporations, and traditional financial institutions is changing the structure of market participants, thereby reshaping the price discovery mechanism.

Government-level Demand: Chain Reaction Driven by Game Theory

The most notable event in 2025 is the shift in government attitudes toward crypto assets. In March, the U.S. government officially established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, marking a transition of cryptocurrencies from speculative tools to officially recognized financial assets. In September of the same year, Kyrgyzstan passed legislation to establish a cryptocurrency reserve. Brazil’s Congress is also pushing forward relevant bills, proposing to allow up to 5% of the country’s international reserves to be held in Bitcoin.

Behind these events lies classic game theory logic. Kuiper points out: “Once multiple countries include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, other nations will face the loss of relative competitive advantage, leading to follow-on pressure.” This game theory-driven “arms race” could lead to sustained increased demand for Bitcoin over the coming years. From a supply and demand perspective, any incremental demand will support upward price movement.

Large-Scale Capital Inflows from Corporations

In addition to governments, participation from traditional companies is becoming a new market driver. As of November, over 100 publicly listed companies hold crypto assets, with about 50 holding over 1 million Bitcoins. This trend only became mainstream in 2025.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been steadily purchasing Bitcoin since 2020, but more companies are following suit this year. Kuiper explains the arbitrage mechanism: “Some companies leverage their market position or financing advantages to raise funds at low cost and then buy Bitcoin. This is partly due to investors being unable to buy directly, instead gaining exposure through these companies.”

However, corporate buying also carries risks. If these companies are forced or choose to sell part of their holdings during a bear market, it could exert significant downward pressure on prices.

End of the Four-Year Cycle or the Beginning of a Super Cycle?

The crypto market has historically followed a four-year cycle. Bitcoin peaked in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, and bottomed in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. Each cycle has been marked by intense volatility: the first from $1,150 to $152, the second from $19,800 to $3,200, and the third from $69,000 to $15,500.

Currently, we are about four years from the previous bull market peak (November 2021). Recent price corrections have sparked new discussions: has this bull market already peaked?

The market holds two views. One believes the traditional four-year cycle will repeat, and we may have entered a bear market. The other believes that, based on new demand levels from governments and corporations, we are entering a “super cycle”—a bull market that will last several years rather than months, with significantly reduced volatility, and future pullbacks much smaller than historical levels. As a reference, commodities in the 2000s experienced nearly a decade of super cycles.

Kuiper believes that cycles have not disappeared because the fear and greed driving these cycles always exist. However, he states that it remains to be seen whether this cycle will form a standard four-year pattern, which will require further confirmation around mid-2026. The current correction could either be the start of a new bear market or a temporary correction within a bull market.

New Paradigm: The Full Penetration of Institutional Capital

By 2025, one thing has been confirmed: the crypto market is entering a new paradigm. Traditional fund managers and institutional investors are beginning to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets on a large scale. Kuiper states: “The investor structure and categories are undergoing a profound transformation, and this trend will continue to deepen into 2026. We are only scratching the surface of the potential capital inflows from traditional finance.”

What does this mean? Investors planning to hold long-term may not have missed the boat. Driven by government reserve needs, corporate capital allocation, and the full influx of institutional capital, the fundamentals of the crypto market are undergoing a historic shift—from a purely speculative domain to a new option for global asset allocation.