Core conclusion: Short-term downward momentum is severely overextended, and a technical rebound is imminent. The current position ($2,924) must strictly avoid shorting and is not suitable for heavy bottom-fishing. The main approach should be absolute caution, or only taking very small positions with strict stop-loss to play the oversold rebound.

Extreme oversold conditions, a rebound is imminent:

RSI(6) has dropped to 15.95 - 32.92, and the J value of KDJ is as low as 6.23 - 22.39. This is a clear and strong short-term extreme oversold signal, indicating that the bearish force has been overextended in the short term, and a technical rebound may start at any moment.

MACD green bars are shortening: some charts show the MACD green bars are no longer expanding, and even a golden cross appears (MACD: 3.43), indicating diminishing downward momentum.

Price hits key support:

The current price of $2,924 is precisely testing the lower Bollinger Band ( $2,915 - $2,926 ), which is a strong support. This is the last line of defense for the bulls in the short term.

Overall trend and risks:

The price remains below the middle band of all cycles ( $2,953 - $2,970 ), and the overall structure is still in a bearish-dominated downtrend.

Upper resistance: any rebound will face dense resistance at $2,990 - $3,010 (middle and upper Bollinger Bands).

Follow-up operational strategies

You are holding cash and must stay absolutely calm. The core of the current strategy is: do not guess the bottom, do not chase shorts, and use the extreme oversold signals to perform highly risky, high reward-to-risk defensive operations, or continue to hold cash and wait.

Strategy 1: Play the oversold rebound with very small positions (high risk, only for disciplined traders)

Logic: Follow the strongest current technical signal (RSI<20).

Area: Around the current price of $2,920 - $2,930.

Signal: A clear bullish reversal candlestick on the 15-minute chart (e.g., a hammer with a long lower shadow).

Operation: Use a very small position (e.g., 1/10 or less of a normal position) to test long entries.

Risk control (iron law):

Stop-loss: Must be firmly set below $2,910 (below the Bollinger lower band support).

Take-profit: Quick in and out, target only $2,970 - $2,990 (Bollinger middle band resistance).

Nature: Defined as “short-term quick rebound,” regardless of profit or loss, do not hold on to the position.

Strategy 2: Maintain absolute cash position, wait for the market to choose itself (strongly recommended)

Logic: Abandon all guesses, wait for the market to form a clear structure. Cash is the best position right now.

Operation: Do nothing, set price alerts.

Key observation levels:

Rebound confirmation level: $2,990 - $3,010. If the price rebounds to this range and shows signs of stagnation, it could be a potential opportunity to short.

Breakdown risk level: $2,910. If a volume-driven break below this level occurs, it may trigger a new downtrend. Do not chase shorts then; wait for a rebound.

Next plan: Patiently observe the price behavior at resistance or support levels, then plan the next high reward-to-risk trade based on clear candlestick signals.

Final action checklist

Most explicit alert: Short-term has no more room to fall, but the trend remains weak.

Please execute immediately:

Rationally choose one:

Option A (small gamble): Around $2,925, if a long lower-shadow hammer appears, go long with a very small position, stop-loss at $2,909, target $2,980, and close upon reaching.

Option B (steady cash): Maintain cash, set alerts at $2,990 (rebound resistance) and $2,910 (breakdown risk). This is the most recommended choice.

Absolute prohibition: Do not open short positions at the current price before a clear bullish candlestick appears.

In the panic-driven end of the market decline (RSI<20), the greatest virtue is patience in “not operating.” You have successfully avoided the main downward wave risk. Now, protect your principal and wait for the next high-probability opportunity after market sentiment stabilizes.