2026-01-21 14:23:36

Last night, a friend was showing off his investment results, having cleared his crypto positions and going all-in on gold and small-cap US stocks. He said, "The ultimate trick to making money now is ABC—Anything But Crypto." That really hit me.

Looking at the data, it’s quite revealing: gold has risen over 60% this year, silver surged an even more impressive 240%, the Russell 2000 index has been up for 11 consecutive trading days, and the ChiNext 50 in China has gained 15% in a month. As for Bitcoin, it has been stuck around the $100,000 mark for three months, recently experiencing five consecutive down days, dropping from 98,000 to 91,000 in one go.

There’s a deeper logic here. When the SEC approves spot ETFs, Wall Street is betting heavily, and central banks around the world are starting strategic reserves, Bitcoin instead seems to be sidelined, watching other markets celebrate.

The root causes are threefold:

**Bitcoin as a Global Sentiment Indicator**. It is directly controlled by global liquidity and often signals turning points in other risk assets ahead of time. Its current stagnation may be a warning sign—other assets’ upward momentum is also nearing exhaustion.

**Global Liquidity Is Shifting from "Printing" to "Withdrawing"**. The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, and the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates. The two largest sources of liquidity are tightening simultaneously. With less money around, assets like Bitcoin, driven by increasing liquidity, naturally struggle to perform.

**Geopolitical Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Sentiment**. A series of moves by Trump have pushed the world toward fragmentation and a new Cold War gray zone. Under this deep uncertainty, large funds instinctively sell off high-risk assets and flock into classic safe havens like gold.

Are the rises in gold and US stocks healthy "bulls"? Not necessarily. They seem more like passive gains of commodities and defensive assets in a liquidity vacuum.

BTC-2.19%

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ChainChef

· 3h ago

ngl the "anything but crypto" take is half-baked at best... sure gold's been simmering nicely but that recipe doesn't hold up when you look at the liquidity drain actually happening right now

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BlockchainNewbie

· 3h ago

Oh no, another "smart person," now everyone is using this kind of rhetoric. Blaming the crypto world when losing money, how funny. Gold and silver are rising so aggressively, is it truly a safe haven or just a bubble inflated? The pain during Bitcoin's bottoming phase is real, but the absolute statements about it being a "bellwether" are too extreme. Liquidity has indeed dried up, but this wave is actually institutions accumulating at low levels, my friend. Your friend didn't see it three months ago, so is it interesting now to come and show off with hindsight? Let's wait and see, this passive upward movement won't last long. The more chaotic the geopolitical situation, the more coins you need to hold; otherwise, all assets are just safe-haven assets, how boring.

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TokenomicsPolice

· 3h ago

Well... friends, this ABC theory is really impressive, but to be honest, gold's 240% increase won't last much longer. Wait, have they ever thought about this when talking about Bitcoin as a weather vane... that this wave of gold's rise might also be a temporary rebound? But I do feel sorry; those three months around the 100,000 mark were really torturous.

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WenAirdrop

· 3h ago

Hey, this logic is really sharp. Bitcoin has truly become a weather vane; it crashes just like that. My friend’s ABC theory is a bit hit home haha, but I feel like the recent gold rally can't last forever. Honestly, when liquidity tightens, Bitcoin is the first to be affected. Now we just wait to see when the Federal Reserve will ease up. With this wave of risk aversion, who would dare to hold heavy positions in high-risk assets... I can see that coming. I feel like the market is brewing something; if it’s been dragging on for three months without moving, there must be a reason.

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GasFeeAssassin

· 3h ago

Wait, the sharp rise in gold and silver doesn't mean the market is healthy... This is a sign of risk aversion sentiment building up. Don't be fooled by the gains. Your friend's comment about ABC is hilarious. To put it nicely, it's a tactical adjustment; to be blunt, it's admitting defeat and running away... We are the long-term believers. Five consecutive down days are indeed painful, but you can't deny Bitcoin's historical status. All those indicators ultimately point to it. --- BTC is now like a neglected child, waiting for the next round of liquidity to come in and take over, just a matter of time. --- Passive rise in a liquidity vacuum... That phrase is spot on. The gold rally is simply unhealthy; it's just panic among the older generation. --- I actually think now is the time to buy the dip in Bitcoin. Gold has risen so sharply that it will peak sooner or later. --- I've heard that ABC rhetoric too many times. History always repeats itself. Just wait and see him regret.

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AirdropHustler

· 3h ago

Your friend speaks quite confidently, but let's wait and see how he explains himself later... He might get called out again this time. The recent surge in gold is real, but using it to counter the crypto circle is a bit funny—liquidity tightens and everyone immediately kneels. The stagnation of Bitcoin isn't without reason; risk assets' safe-haven sentiment gets crushed when it rises, but gold won't be able to jump for much longer either. To put it simply, it's just that there's less money now, so everything is hard to rise—this isn't a BTC problem but a macro environment issue. Don't overthink his comments; once the next round of liquidity loosens, you'll see who laughs last. By the way, your friend's timing to clear his positions seems a bit off—let's wait and see.

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