Looking at Aster's trend, many people only see the surface—big V endorsements, contract popularity, buyback promises—and think it's stable. In reality, savvy traders have long sensed the risk.

Where is the problem? Simply put, it's three words: supply pressure. Early large holders, airdrop hunters, and periodic unlock mechanisms are the real drivers pushing the price down. Just looking at the unlocks, 1% of the supply is released each month, which amounts to a selling pressure of 56.41 million USD. If you're an investor holding unlocked tokens and suddenly have assets worth over 50 million USD in your hands, would you choose to hold on tightly? The reality is: no one would be that foolish.

The recovery mechanism looks good—20% to 40% of daily transaction fees are used for buybacks. But numbers don't lie. In the past 30 days, fee income was 24 million USD, corresponding buyback volume is only 4.8 to 9.6 million USD. This scale is simply insignificant compared to the 56.41 million USD unlock flood each month. In the long run, buy pressure simply can't keep up with sell pressure.

The overall market environment isn't favorable either, and that's a major factor. If the market remains weak, there's a historical lesson—dYdX's experience, and Aster is likely to go through the same. By then, retail investors caught in the trap will probably regret it too late.