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Core conclusion: The price has rebounded into the planned shorting zone, and short-term indicators show weakening upward momentum. You can execute a "trend-following short" based on the plan, but optimize entry details according to the current price level and strictly adhere to discipline.
Short-term momentum exhaustion signals a bearish outlook:
Key signals: The J value of the 15-minute KDJ reaches 92.41, and RSI(6) reaches 72.45, entering a clear short-term overbought zone. This indicates that the buying force driving this rebound has been exhausted in the short term, increasing the probability of the price falling back from resistance levels.
Structure: The price on the 15-minute chart forms a small double top or stagnation pattern and cannot effectively break above the Bollinger upper band.
Medium-term trend downward:
The 1-hour chart clearly shows that the price is below the Bollinger middle band ($3,139), and the MACD remains in a death cross, defining the main trend as downward. Your short position is trend-following.
Optimized plan for "short near 2976" now:
The price has entered the ambush zone and is ready for execution. Please strictly follow this plan:
Entry zone and signals:
Zone: The current price $2,970 - $2,990 is an ideal area; no need to wait for $3,010.
Signal: Observe the 15-minute chart; if a clear bearish candlestick pattern appears (e.g., long upper shadow, Evening Star, bearish engulfing), it can be considered an entry signal.
Operation: When the signal appears, manually open a short position.
Position and risk control (iron rules):
Position: Light position (e.g., half of the planned position).
Stop-loss: Must be set above $3,020 (e.g., $3,025) to prevent false breakouts.
Take-profit targets:
First target: $2,920 - $2,930 (1-hour Bollinger lower band and support level).
Second target: $2,870 - $2,890 (previous low and larger support).
Operation: When the first target is reached, reduce half of the position and move the remaining stop-loss to the entry price to lock in "zero risk."
Final action instructions for you:
Your trading plan aligns closely with the market trend. The price has reached the ambush zone, and momentum is waning.
Please execute the following steps immediately:
Prepare to enter: Switch your chart to the 15-minute cycle, closely monitor the $2,970 - $2,990 zone.
Wait for signals: Patiently wait for one or more 15-minute bearish candles confirming weakening upward momentum (e.g., a bearish candle with a long upper shadow).
Decisively act: When the signal appears, manually open a short position, and immediately set the stop-loss at $3,025.
Exit and wait: After setting stop-loss and take-profit, do not monitor constantly; let the trade run on its own.
"Plan your trade, trade your plan." You have devised a rational high reward-to-risk strategy, and the market is now moving into the planned position. Stay calm, wait for a clear candlestick signal like a hunter, then execute decisively.