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U.S. Treasury yields approach 5%: The era of risk assets is imminent
【Blockchain Rhythm】Recently, there is a noteworthy signal. Hedge fund giant Citadel’s leader Kenneth Griffin issued a warning at Davos — the record high in Japanese government bond yields has sounded an alarm. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the 5% threshold.
What does this mean? In simple terms, when bond yields are roughly equal to stock returns, the traditional asset allocation logic collapses. Bonds, which were once considered the “stabilizer” in a portfolio, are now turning into high-risk assets. Investors seeking to hedge risks with bonds are now exposed to greater risks.
Griffin’s particular insight is especially interesting: once the market begins to doubt the U.S. credit rating, U.S. bonds will shift from “safe assets” to “risky assets.” At that point, a double decline in stocks and bonds will occur. The bond market will demand higher yields to compensate for risk, further pushing up mortgage rates, and ultimately increasing overall financing costs.
The U.S. is not yet at the “urgent” stage, but policymakers’ response window is rapidly closing. For the crypto market, this macro environment shift means a fundamental change in risk appetite, which is definitely worth paying attention to.