The ultimate prediction of the overall trend first warned of risks yesterday, and today it has fallen. We can't say there's any direct correlation, but I believe my warning was still timely for me. The risks of the 1.27 FOMC and the government shutdown on 1.31 are objectively present, so caution is definitely advised. Today, I want to discuss a bigger topic—the overall trend. I also communicated with my American colleagues and found that the script can converge into two main scenarios.

The first is shown in Chart 1, the "higher low" script. Many Americans firmly believe we won't break below 74, and this bear market is different. The main reason for this difference is institutional entry and ETF buying, which prevent the price from falling below 74. Therefore, the bullish structure still exists.

The second scenario is shown in Chart 2, which is the script I foresee. Just like in 2022, the fake higher low deceived most people, but the final result was a breakdown of the mid-term rebound in the bear market we described in early January. Currently, it appears that 98 is increasingly likely to be the highest point of the rebound. For me, this increases the possibility of the second script.

These two scripts (i.e., my view versus the foreign experts' view) I have described long ago. The reason I bring it up again today is because I’ve noticed that many people believe in the first script, and their reasons are not entirely unreasonable. I think the longer we consolidate above 74 (or 80) without falling below, the higher the probability that 74+ is the bottom. If we cannot break below 80500 in February/March, then I believe the possibility of 74 being the bottom cannot be ignored.

For the second script, a quick breakdown of 80500 is needed to further increase the likelihood. Currently, in the medium term, the pressure is on the bears, not the bulls. Whether the macro events on 1.27 and 1.31 will trigger a breakdown of 80500 remains to be seen. We still need to wait and see.

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