Prediction markets show that the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil chokepoint that has remained closed since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28—has less than a 25% probability of reopening before April 15. By June 1, the probability of reopening will rise to above 67%, reaching 76% by July 1. As the strait's closure has pushed crude oil prices to $120 per barrel, traders on the Kalshi platform have wagered over $100,000 on this timeline. Currently, amid diplomatic negotiations, Brent crude is trading at $100 per barrel.

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