郭明錤: Apple’s low-cost Neo will迎来两大利好, Pro and Air will both feature OLED screens

Phoenix.com Technology News, March 11, Beijing time. A well-known Apple analyst, Guo Mingji, of Tianfeng International Securities, posted on X today, saying that Apple will be the only bright spot among 2026 laptop brands. He provided outlooks on the shipment volume of the MacBook Neo, the second-generation model, and Apple’s OLED screen models.

Guo Mingji said that Neo began small-scale production at the end of December 2025 (originally expected for October). Due to a production ramp-up delay of about 3 months, the 2026 shipment volume is slightly lower than the earlier estimate, at about 4.5 million–5 million units, including about 2 million–2.5 million units in the first half. Even considering a single laptop model, this shipment volume is still quite strong.

Guo Mingji had previously expected Neo 2 to be equipped with a touch panel to compete with Chromebook, which has more than 50% of models equipped with touch panels. But his latest industry research indicates that Neo 2 likely will not adopt a touch panel.

At present, Quanta is Neo’s exclusive contract assembler. Hon Hai may become the second supplier in the near term. It should be noted that in the past one to two years, Luxshare’s Windows laptop assembly business has grown rapidly; its goal is to become the world’s largest laptop assembler, and it is actively working to secure new product introductions (NPI) for Neo 2.

Guo Mingji pointed out that Neo’s shipment momentum is expected to stabilize and grow quarter by quarter, for two reasons: 1) demand during the back-to-school season and year-end holiday peak; 2) lower-cost memory inventory that competing companies stocked last year is expected to be depleted by the mid-2026 period. Therefore, starting from the second quarter of 2026, more laptop models may raise their prices to reflect the increase in memory costs, which is unfavorable for competing with Neo.

He also reiterated his earlier forecast: the MacBook Pro will undergo a major upgrade at the end of the fourth quarter of 2026 or the beginning of the first quarter of 2027, adopting a touch OLED panel. The MacBook Air is expected to have an OLED panel in 2028 or 2029.

Guo Mingji expects that Apple’s MacBook shipments in 2026 will be about 25 million units, up 20%–25% year over year. There is a chance it will return to the peak levels seen during the COVID-19 period, and become the only bright spot among 2026 laptop brands. By contrast, Windows laptop shipments are expected to decline by more than 10% year over year.

He said that the price validation from iPhone 17e to MacBook Neo confirms his earlier prediction about Apple’s strategy: when the memory market is in turmoil, Apple improves its market share by absorbing costs, which also reinforces the view that the new iPhones in the second half of this year will not increase prices. As long as Apple’s market share continues to grow, it will not only help the ongoing expansion of its high-margin services business, but when AI on the device side truly takes off at some point in the future, Apple will also become the biggest beneficiary. (Author/ Xiao Yu)