ATFX: Trump's "Five-Day Ceasefire Order" Sparks Gold Market: $4099 Shock Reversal—Is This the Dawn of Peace or the Final Trap?

Ask AI · Will Trump’s five-day ceasefire order change the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations?

ATFX: Recently, the global gold market has experienced a "roller coaster"行情 that is enough to be recorded in financial history. In just 24 hours, the gold price plummeted over 8.7% to a very low point of $4099, and then staged a dramatic rebound triggered by a tweet from Trump, currently rising back to around $4430. This thrilling “deep V” reversal has evolved into an extreme game driven by a combination of geopolitical ultimatums, energy inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate logic. The storm originated from Trump’s “48-hour ultimatum” to Iran issued last weekend, which, along with threats to strike its energy facilities, immediately pushed the market into “war mode,” causing oil prices to soar and igniting the wildfire of inflation resurgence. The logic cruelly switched at this moment: the market became more concerned that the Federal Reserve would resume interest rate hikes due to uncontrolled inflation, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to rise together, locking down gold’s survival space, resulting in a collective trampling of long positions, triggering the worst weekly decline since 1983.

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However, a dramatic turn occurred early Monday morning Eastern Time when Trump tweeted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had a “very good and productive” dialogue and instructed his “war department” to postpone military action for five days. This “stay of execution” instantly drained the war premium from the oil market, with crude oil plunging over 10%, the dollar retreating from its highs, and gold violently rebounding. From a technical chart perspective, this rebound began after precisely touching support level 2 ($4112.44), where strong buying emerged, validating the effectiveness of the bottom support. Currently, the gold price has successfully reclaimed key support level 1 ($4331.04) and the $4309.49 transition zone. Holding above this line means that the rebound momentum is transitioning from false to real.

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Looking ahead, this five-day “peace window” will be crucial for the bulls and bears. If the gold price can hold above $4331.04 and further break through resistance level 1 ($4448.86), the upper space will directly target resistance level 2 ($4509.21), opening the door for a retaliatory correction against the previous excessive decline. Conversely, if Iran’s denial of the dialogue triggers another breakdown in the situation, or if the gold price rises and falls below support level 1, the downward target will once again point to $4112.44 or even lower. As indicated by the bidirectional wave forecast arrows marked on the right side of the technical chart, the market is in an extremely sensitive “Twitter pricing” mode, where any technical indicators appear extremely vulnerable in the face of political reversals. Before the five-day deadline expires, the gold price will remain in this massive volatility range seeking direction.