Oil and gas substitution, energy storage debuts! Institutions: Production scheduling data is warming up, and industry prosperity is on the rise.

Question AI · How do geopolitical conflicts and AI computing power catalyze the explosive demand for energy storage?

Recently, the attention on the new energy sector has surged, with the energy storage segment standing out the most. The battery ETF with 60% energy storage content,招商 (561910), saw a net inflow of over 30 million yesterday.

Currently, the core logic of the battery sector is becoming clearer. Under the dual catalysis of geopolitical conflicts and the explosion of AI computing power, the trend of replacing old energy with new energy is accelerating, and the demand for energy storage is experiencing explosive growth. Guohai Securities points out that the mismatch between supply and demand in the industrial chain may lead to a long cycle of high prosperity.

Energy replacement has become the main theme, with two major driving forces resonating.

On one hand, the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts has led to a significant rise in oil and gas prices. The worsening situation in the Middle East has raised global energy supply concerns, with European natural gas futures prices doubling from their low points this year, highlighting energy security issues once again. This directly promotes the “oil-to-gas” and new energy replacement processes, with energy storage as a key link to ensure energy security, benefiting the entire industrial chain significantly.

On the other hand, the explosion of AI computing power has triggered “power shortage anxiety.” The surge in data center energy consumption has resulted in tighter electricity supply in North America and other regions, making “computing and electricity synergy” a necessity. The National Bureau of Statistics proposed at the China Development Forum 2026 that it will work with relevant departments to vigorously promote the computing and electricity synergy project, ensuring that more than 80% of the new computing power facilities at hub nodes utilize green electricity, maximizing the support of green power. Energy storage systems, as important tools for managing power quality, can ensure stable power supply for data centers, with demand continuously rising.

From the fundamental data perspective, the industry’s high prosperity has been thoroughly validated. Since 2026, the bidding and installed capacity of new energy storage have seen significant year-on-year growth, with the bidding scale increasing by 120.8% year-on-year in January-February and the total installed capacity growing by 182.07% year-on-year, showing an explosive growth trend.

The production side is also performing strongly. Sample companies in the battery sector saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 37% in production in March, with a month-on-month growth of 22%, and production in April is expected to continue this upward trend. Leading Chinese companies have full overseas orders and high performance realization rates. Against the backdrop of stable lithium carbonate prices (around 140,000 yuan/ton), the profitability of end energy storage projects is less affected, and combined with rising processing fees and potential inventory gains, the first quarter’s performance is expected to achieve high growth.

The battery ETF招商 (561910) tracks the CSI Battery Theme Index, which has nearly 60% energy storage content, including industry leaders like Sungrow, CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, XianDai Intelligent, and Tianci Materials. It covers the upstream and downstream of the battery industry chain, including power, energy storage, and consumer electronics. (Link A: 016019; Link C: 016020)

Source:招商基金

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