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[US Stock Market] Oil prices up 2%, gold jumps 3%, US Treasury yields hit 4.46%, Dow Jones drops 296 points (updating continuously)
Former President Donald Trump of the United States has announced a 10-day extension for the bombing of Iranian power plants, which has not eased market concerns. Instead, worries about the prolonged conflict affecting oil supply have intensified, aggravating the global economic impact and raising concerns that central banks around the world may enter a rate-hiking cycle. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.46%, the highest in over eight months; the 20-year Treasury yield even surpassed 5%, a first since July of last year.
According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the United States and Israel conducted airstrikes on Friday (27th) against the Khuzestan Steel Company and the Mubarak Steel Company in Isfahan, with the associated power plant also coming under attack.
U.S. stocks fluctuated. The Dow Jones fell by 296 points, closing at 45,663 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7% to 6,432 points, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.1%, ending at 21,177 points.
Oil prices continued to rise, with New York crude oil increasing by 3.6% to $97.91, Brent crude for May rising by 2.4% to $110.57, and June crude increasing by 2.1% to $104.02.
Gold prices rose by over 3%, with New York futures gold trading at $4,543, up 3%, while spot gold reached $4,512, also up 3%.
Funds continued to flow into the dollar as a safe haven, with the dollar index surpassing 100. LGT Bank (Asia) noted a neutral stance on the dollar from a tactical perspective, taking into account the favorable trade conditions the U.S. enjoys as the world’s largest net energy exporter amid the current energy crisis, and reflecting the dollar’s position as a defensive asset during market volatility. Given the current inflationary situation, we believe the Federal Reserve has less room to cut rates than in the past, expecting at most one rate cut by 2026, down from the previous expectation of one to two cuts.
The bank anticipates that within 6 to 12 months, assuming the energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will slowly resume the trend of diversifying away from the dollar, putting mild downward pressure on it against some major currencies. This outlook reflects the market’s continued uncertainty regarding U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while the prospects for other economies such as Australia and China are relatively improving. However, the upside risk for the dollar remains, and the longer the disruption in energy supply lasts, the more pronounced this risk becomes.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly updating, for details please see: Next page
Market Trends:
【18:29】Trump extends final ultimatum deadline by 10 days. Dow futures down 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%. Dollar and long-term Treasury yields both rise.
【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points, at 46,407 points; S&P futures up 29 points, at 6,554 points; Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5%, at 23,905 points.
【15:11】Oil prices show mixed developments, with New York crude down 0.3% at $94.24, Brent crude up nearly 0.1% at $108.11. Gold prices rose over 1%, with New York futures gold at $4,487, up 1.8%, and spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.
【13:25】【AI + Memory】Google unveils new technology TurboQuant for scattering storage and chip stocks. Morgan Stanley describes it as “another DeepSeek moment.” Analysts say it benefits cloud service giants.
【11:26】【Dollar Bills】Trump’s signature will appear on the new version of U.S. banknotes, breaking a 165-year tradition for U.S. presidents.
【11:15】【Yen Trends】Yen to HKD is 4.91. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato suggests intervention in the currency market.
【10:56】【AAPL】Apple unusually granted bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.
【10:49】【U.S. Interest Rates】Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson: The impact of rising energy prices on inflation remains limited; current interest rate stance is appropriate.
【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI’s U.S. advertising revenue has exceeded $100 million in six weeks and will expand to more countries in the coming weeks.
【10:07】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices recover some ground as Trump delays the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran. The Turkish central bank sold over $8 billion in gold, exacerbating downward pressure on gold prices.
【10:06】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Extended negotiation deadline to April 6. “Iranian representatives politely requested 7 days; I gave 10 days.” (Updates ongoing)
【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises the monthly fee for all U.S. subscribers, with increases of over 12%.
【09:28】【New IPO】Anthropic reportedly considering an IPO as early as October, potentially raising over $60 billion.
【08:47】【New IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to hold an investor briefing in April, intending to allocate up to 30% of the IPO quota to retail investors.
【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s Siri gets a major overhaul. Reports suggest Apple plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.
$1 or less for March 26 U.S. stock market conditions====
Thursday: Trump extends bombing of Iranian power plants by 10 days; oil prices experience volatility.
Former President Donald Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, stating, “At the request of the Iranian government, let this statement represent my decision to pause the destruction of the power plants for 10 days until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the false narratives spread by fake news media and others, the discussions are going very smoothly.”
Brent crude oil at one point evaporated a 7% gain, but due to the message indicating that the Strait of Hormuz still faces over 10 days of blockade, oil prices surged again by 5% to $107.
Real-time U.S. stock market closing:
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Concerns over inflation persist, with U.S. 10-year bond yields rising to 4.412%, up 0.079%. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.93.
The Dow closed down 469 points at 45,960 points, the S&P dropped 1.7% to close at 6,477 points, and the Nasdaq fell 2.4% to close at 21,408 points.
Trump stated in a cabinet meeting that the U.S. will continue to strike Iran until a conflict-ending agreement is reached. He confirmed that the U.S. still plans to keep the Iran conflict lasting only four to six weeks.
Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by the Iranian negotiating representatives was allowing at least eight oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump stated that the ability of these vessels to transit the strait was a signal to the U.S., indicating that the negotiating representatives were showing “we are real and reliable.” Trump mentioned that these tankers might fly the Pakistani flag. He continued, “At that time, I said, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of the things they said.” The White House declined to provide further details regarding the tankers.
Earlier, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, stating that Iranian negotiating representatives were very unusual and somewhat “weird.” On one hand, they “pleaded” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he considered understandable. However, they publicly stated that they were only considering the U.S. proposals. He stated this was a grave mistake and urged Iran to take it seriously soon, or it would be too late, with dire consequences!
He later stated in an interview that the Iran issue would be resolved quickly, without taking too long, and energy prices would fall, even to lower levels. He was unsure whether they were willing to reach an agreement with Iran, noting that they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago and had missed that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. had completely destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of their missiles and missile launchers, adding that Iran should use nuclear weapons against Israel and other countries in the region, as well as the U.S.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on Wednesday (25th) that Iran had formally responded to the U.S.'s proposed 15-point ceasefire agreement and was awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be executed on all fronts and against all resistance organizations involved in this battle across the entire region.
Egypt confirmed its participation in the U.S.-Iran mediation efforts. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran and participating in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate the regional situation.
Schroeder indicated that the development of the Iran conflict presents multiple possibilities, making the economic and financial market outlook difficult to discern: if oil prices are above $120 per barrel or below $90, the global economy will exhibit entirely different scenarios. Compared to February, the probabilities of both extreme scenarios have increased, while the probability of the previously middle-ground scenario of “economic stability” with moderate dovish tendencies has been correspondingly reduced.
The bank indicated that, given the inflationary pressures from the impact of oil prices, it raised the probability of an “overheated” economic scenario; however, this assessment remains lower than the probabilities implied by the market. Central banks globally will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly updating, for details please see: Next page
Market Trends:
【23:00】Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will drop. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 75 points, oil prices up 4%.
【21:30】Trump urges Iranian negotiating representatives to take it seriously soon. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 218 points, oil prices up 4%.
【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Oil prices up 4%, gold prices rebounding after two consecutive days of decline.
【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521 points; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611 points; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241 points.
【14:27】Oil prices up 2%, New York crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices rebounded after two consecutive days of declines, New York futures gold down 3% at $4,446, spot gold down 1.7% at $4,429.
【14:19】【Private Equity】Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns: The private equity market harbors a “fire” crisis; failure to sell assets could trigger significant impairments.
【13:39】【U.S. Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points. Analysts say the current rebound is driven by ceasefire speculation; U.S.-Iran conflict unlikely to end soon; oil prices expected to rise again.
【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors not to underestimate the risks of the Iran war. Even if “war is announced to end tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150.
【11:43】【AI + Meta】AI investments are substantial. Meta initiates a new round of layoffs, affecting hundreds of people.
【10:47】【Dollar Trends】Morgan Stanley: The rise of the dollar may be a “bull trap.” The market underestimates the adverse impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year.
【10:15】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Federal Reserve Governor Milan raises interest rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, stating it is not due to oil prices or Iran factors.
【09:28】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices end a nine-day decline! Spot gold recovers above the $4,500 level, with local gold prices rising by $1,800 in a single day.
【08:54】【ARM + Chip】Arm rises 8% after hours, will sell its own chips for the first time, expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, with Meta as its first major customer.
【08:26】【New IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.
【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will make a big gift today. Rubio and Vance participate in negotiations, with the premise being “they can never have nuclear weapons.” (Updates ongoing)
【08:01】【AI + AMZN】Software stocks are again severely impacted. Amazon reportedly developing new AI agents to replace some departmental functions.
$1 or less for March 24 U.S. stock market conditions====
Tuesday: U.S. reportedly seeks negotiations with Iran on Thursday. Brent oil stabilizes, Dow’s decline narrows.
Multiple U.S. media reported that the U.S. is in contact with Iran regarding a ceasefire plan, with Axios reporting that the U.S. and mediation intermediaries are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still awaiting a response from Tehran.
Real-time U.S. stock market closing:
Iranian officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations, but they confirmed that the U.S. had sent messages and proposals.
Oil prices were cautious, with Brent crude up 0.2%, closing at $100.17, and New York crude up 4.8%, closing at $92.35.
Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising 1.6% to close at $4,475.51; spot silver remained relatively stable, closing at $71.2194.
The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.23, and U.S. 10-year bond yields remained high at 4.36%.
U.S. stocks were slightly weak, with the Dow having fallen by 438 points, hitting a low of 45,769 points, closing down 84 points at 46,124 points; the S&P dropped 0.4% to close at 6,556 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to close at 21,761 points.
Trump has postponed the final ultimatum by 5 days, but Israel and Iran continue to experience sporadic attacks. The Prime Minister of Pakistan stated his willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.
Market news indicates that Iran has started charging some commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a toll, with fees being collected on a temporary basis, with a single passage costing up to $2 million, effectively establishing an informal “toll” in this waterway. It is reported that some vessels have already paid the related fees, but the specific payment mechanism remains unclear, including the currency used.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday that, after close coordination with Iranian authorities, a ship flying the flag of Thailand successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Israeli media Ynet, the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date for ending the war against Iran, meaning over half a month is available for combat and negotiations, with Washington striving to end the conflict by the end of April.
Reports suggest that if the conflict concludes as scheduled around April 9, Trump plans to visit Israel around the Independence Day on May 14. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating, attempting to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran, possibly initiating preliminary contact in Pakistan this week, though both sides have not formally confirmed this.
Additionally, according to CCTV citing Russian media, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on the BBC Arabic channel that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to bear the substantial costs of U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.
The report mentioned that Trump is demanding massive “protection fees” from Arab allies, either paying $50 trillion (approximately 39 trillion HKD) to continue the conflict or $25 trillion (approximately 19.5 trillion HKD) to end the war, claiming this is compensation for “achieved results.”
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly updating, for details please see: Next page
Market Trends:
【22:50】Reports indicate Iran charging “tolls” for commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%. Oil prices rebound by 3%.
【21:30】Pakistan states it is ready to host U.S.-Iran talks. Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%. Oil prices rebound by 4%.
【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there hope for a U.S.-Iran war? Trump reportedly demands exorbitant protection fees: $25 trillion to end the war.
【16:00】【Iran Crisis】Reports suggest the U.S. has set April 9 as the “end date” for the war. Iran continues to deny this.
【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264 points; S&P futures down 38 points, at 6,596 points; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258 points.
【14:00】Oil prices recover, with New York crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices remain soft, with New York futures gold down 0.9% at $4,400, and spot gold down 1.1% at $4,357.
【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term due to ongoing Middle East conflicts, maintaining a year-end target of $6,250.
【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, guaranteeing a 17.5% minimum return to compete in the corporate AI market.
【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky has passed away due to cancer, at the age of 43.
【12:34】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices continue to soften after nine consecutive declines, with local gold prices falling below $40,000.
【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to reduce Switch 2 production by about 33% this season, with cuts expected to continue until April.
【11:51】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices have dropped over 20% from their highs, entering a bear market. Morgan Stanley: Funds are flowing from safe-haven assets to the stock market, which is a positive signal for U.S. stocks.
【11:19】【Iran Crisis】The Japanese government has ordered an assessment of the supply chain for petroleum-related products to respond to the crisis. The Ministry of Finance is reportedly consulting the market about potential interventions in crude oil futures.
【10:36】【AI + Investments】BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality. Investors should hedge against the impact through stock holdings.
【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states in investor documents that its reliance on Microsoft poses risks. What other risks exist?
【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios. The Fed needs to maintain flexibility to respond to risks.
【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference WWDC 26 will be held starting June 8, with a series of AI features expected to be released.
【06:32】【Iran Crisis】The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament denies ever negotiating with Trump. The British destroyer “Dragon” has arrived in the Mediterranean. (Updates ongoing)
$1 or less for March 23 U.S. stock market conditions====
Monday: Trump’s statements remain questioned. Dow’s gains halved to 631 points, oil prices continue to decline by 10%.
Former President Donald Trump claimed to have negotiated with Iran to postpone strikes on power plants, which stimulated a drop in oil prices and a rebound in the stock market. The Dow once rose by 1,134 points, reaching a high of 46,712 points, the S&P rose by 2.2% to a high of 6,651 points, and the Nasdaq rose by 2.5% to a high of 22,189 points. However, the closing gains narrowed, with the Dow closing up 631 points at 46,208 points, the S&P up 1.1% at 6,581 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946 points.
Real-time U.S. stock market closing:
Oil prices once dropped by 14.1%, closing down by 10%, with New York crude closing at $88.13 and Brent crude at $100.5. Spot gold prices fell by 7% at one point, hitting a low of $4,099.18, and closed down by 1.9% at $4,407.18.
Macquarie Group global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman stated, “We are cautiously skeptical about today’s news regarding an impending ‘breakthrough’ and tweets,” believing that the war is unlikely to last beyond April, as Iran’s threats may be weakened by then, but a large-scale military operation is also not likely to conclude within this week.
Trump stated on the social platform Truth Social that negotiations with Iran had gone smoothly over the past two days, instructing the U.S. War Department to suspend all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent upon successful ongoing meetings and discussions.
Trump later pointed out that the two countries had reached multiple agreements during negotiations and had discussed candidates for Iranian leadership, claiming that Iran had agreed to abandon nuclear weapons. However, he also mentioned that if U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations would continue.
However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later cited Iranian sources stating that no negotiations had taken place between the U.S. and Iran, and there are currently no negotiations. They also indicated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-conflict state. Another agency, Mehr, also cited an Iranian Foreign Ministry source stating that Trump’s remarks aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for his military plans.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry subsequently expressed that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should become a dialogue partner, as the war was not initiated by Iran.
Trump responded further, stating that negotiations took place on Sunday (22nd), emphasizing that Iran was eager to reach an agreement, admitting he did not understand why Iranian media would refute his statements.
T. Rowe Price indicated that after the Iranian attack, gold prices exhibited a typical safe-haven surge, but the gains did not persist, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the events. Investors did not view this as a sustained geopolitical shock but were rather inclined to see it as an inflationary event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real interest rates, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which were unfavorable for gold prices.
Gold prices had accumulated considerable gains before the events, limiting the space for new safe-haven capital inflows. The expected trends in gold prices will still be influenced by both macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and central bank policy expectations will be key, while attention must also be paid to energy prices and dollar trends. The bank continues to view gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks, combined with unclear policy outlooks, provides some support for gold prices, even if short-term price trends may remain volatile.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly updating, for details please see: Next page
Market Trends:
【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations will continue. Dow rebounds by 890 points. Oil prices drop by 10%.
【21:30】Trump postpones final ultimatum by 5 days, stating negotiations with Iran are ongoing. Dow rebounds by 744 points. Oil prices drop by 8%.
【20:10】Iran denies negotiations are taking place. Dow futures rebound narrowed. Oil prices drop by 5%.
【19:10】Trump: Progress in negotiations with Iran, final ultimatum postponed by 5 days. Dow futures turn up 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%. Oil prices plunge by 10%.
【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points, at 45,693 points; S&P futures down 37 points, at 6,521 points; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7%, at 23,934 points.
【14:13】New York crude oil up 0.8% at $98.97; Brent crude oil up 0.6% at $112.85.
【14:13】【Gold Price Trends】Spot gold prices drop below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains. Local gold prices fall by another $1,000, retreating by $10,000 from highs.
【13:25】【Oil Price Trends】Goldman Sachs warns that the oil market faces the “largest supply shock in history,” raising its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85.
【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA Director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged.” The impact of the conflict is equivalent to the combined effects of the two oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.
【11:40】【Yen Trends】Yen to HKD is 4.9. Japanese officials reiterate “export measures”: ready to take all necessary actions to address currency fluctuations.
【11:21】【Iran Crisis】South Korea and Japan experience a “Black Monday,” with Korean stocks dropping 5% and initiating the sixth “Sidecar” mechanism of the year. The Nikkei index fell over 2,600 points at one point.
【10:56】【AI + Chips】Musk: The Terafab project will be based in Austin, jointly operated by Tesla and SpaceX.
【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final ultimatum countdown: 1 day left. Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure. Oil prices fluctuate. (Updates ongoing)
【07:30】【Global Weekly Outlook】Continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Watch for comments from Fed officials. U.S. March manufacturing PMI to be released on Tuesday.
【07:30】As the Iran conflict escalates, President Trump stated to reporters on Friday, “I do not want a ceasefire.” Energy prices are volatile, with the Dow’s decline at one point exceeding 600 points; U.S. long-term bond yields are at a six-month high, with the market currently estimating a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577 points; the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.01%.
Real-time U.S. stock market closing:
For last week’s U.S. stock dynamics, please see: U.S. stock closing｜Trump states he does not want a ceasefire, Dow falls 443 points, U.S. long-term bond yields at six-month highs, September rate hike chance at 40%.