BTC & ETH Key Level Analysis | Bull and Bear Battle Under Middle East Tensions

📊 BTC & ETH Key Level Analysis｜Long and Short Strategies Amid the Middle East Situation

🔥 Macro Background

The Middle East war has escalated on its 27th day, with Israel announcing an “expanded attack,” Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices nearing $100. Panic spreads as BTC plummets from $69,400 to $65,700, while ETH falls below $2,000.

The PCE data originally scheduled for release today has been postponed to April 9, removing a short-term bearish catalyst, but geopolitical risks remain the biggest variable.

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₿ BTC (Current $65,900)

🔴 Short Entry Points: ① $67,500 (MA5 + 0.382 Retracement) → Stop Loss $68,200 → Target $65,000 ② $69,000 (Previous High + MA10) → Stop Loss $69,700 → Target $66,500

🟢 Long Entry Points: ① $65,000 (March High Volume Area) → Stop Loss $64,300 → Target $67,000 ② $63,000 (Key Integer + Previous Low) → Stop Loss $62,300 → Target $65,500

View: Bearish pattern, primarily short on rebounds. $65,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; a drop below that targets $63,000.

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◆ ETH (Current $1,985)

🔴 Short Entry Points: ① $2,020 (MA5 + Hourly Resistance) → Stop Loss $2,040 → Target $1,960 ② $2,048 (MA50 + Fib 38.2% Confluence) → Stop Loss $2,069 → Target $2,007 ③ $2,080 (MA100 + 4H Resistance) → Stop Loss $2,101 → Target $2,038

🟢 Long Entry Points: ① $1,950 (Integer Level + Daily Touch) → Stop Loss $1,930 → Target $2,000 ② $1,900 (Strong Psychological Level + Multiple Supports) → Stop Loss $1,880 → Target $1,960

View: ETH has dropped for six consecutive months, setting a historical record. Polymarket shows a 71% probability of falling to $1,500 for the year. In the short term, $1,980 is a critical support level; a break below targets $1,900. Consider shorts only if it rebounds above $2,048.

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💡 Operational Suggestions

1. The current environment is extreme; maintain a light position.
2. Risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2; strict stop loss.
3. Avoid chasing price movements; use limit orders to wait for positions.
4. Black swans may occur at any time; pay attention to risk control.

⚠️ The above is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; proceed with caution.

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