Contract liabilities decline, Q4 losses widen. Tsingtao Brewery's 2025 performance slightly below broker expectations | Financial report analysis

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Caixin News, March 26 (Reporter Zhu Wanping) - Thanks to cost optimization and product structure upgrades, Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) achieved a slight revenue increase of about 1% last year, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew approximately 5.6% year-on-year, realizing the core performance goal of both sales and profit growth.

This evening, Qingdao Beer announced that the company expects to achieve operating revenue of 32.47 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%; net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Benefiting from channel expansion and other factors, last year Qingdao Beer achieved sales of approximately 7.65 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of about 1.5%, slightly outperforming the overall performance of the beer industry during the same period.

Caixin reporters noted that Qingdao Beer’s performance last year fell short of expectations from several brokerages. According to Choice data, since May last year, 41 brokerages have made forecasts for the company’s 2025 performance, with net profit predictions ranging from 4.75 billion to 5.321 billion yuan. In retrospect, Qingdao Beer’s net profit last year was slightly lower than brokerage expectations.

Looking at the quarters, in Q4 last year, Qingdao Beer achieved revenue of 3.107 billion yuan, slightly down compared to the same period last year; net profit attributable to the parent company was -686 million yuan, with a slight expansion in quarterly losses.

Product structure optimization remained a major highlight for Qingdao Beer last year. The company’s main brand sales reached 4.494 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, while the sales of mid-to-high-end products reached 3.318 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Sales of Qingdao Beer’s classic series, white beer, and ultra-high-end series reached historical highs, with white beer sales growing rapidly, ranking first in the industry for the white beer category.

In addition to product structure optimization, effective control of costs and expenses has also boosted the company’s performance to some extent. Last year, Qingdao Beer’s operating costs decreased by 1.69% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in some raw material prices, while sales expenses decreased by 2.58% year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in expense control.

Regarding contract liabilities, as of the end of last year, Qingdao Beer’s contract liabilities stood at 7.674 billion yuan, down about 7.7% from 8.313 billion yuan at the end of 2024. As a key leading indicator reflecting channel confidence and the scale of advance payments, the year-on-year decline in Qingdao Beer’s contract liabilities indicates a cooling enthusiasm among distributors for advance payments and stock preparations, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the rhythm of terminal sales, inventory clearance speed, and future demand expectations.

For the 2026 business plan, Qingdao Beer did not provide specific target guidance, only stating that this year it will continue to focus on the main beer business, further expand the market, and consolidate its northern base market; key southern markets will focus on breakthroughs, deepening regional presence and steadily increasing market share. Overseas, the company will enhance brand influence through diversified cooperation layouts. However, Qingdao Beer also acknowledged in its annual report that entering 2026, the company will still face multiple challenges, such as intensified market competition and insufficient consumer demand.

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