CITIC Securities Strategy Conference: China's assets continue to gain global attractiveness, with A-shares at a critical turning point

Ask AI · How will new productive forces rewrite the main line of economic growth?

Text | Yuan Xiaoli

Editor | Liu Peng

On March 19, the CITIC Securities 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum was held in Beijing. On the first day of the forum, several guests provided deep insights on hot topics such as macroeconomics, policy trends, market strategies, and technological frontiers.

Zhu Yexin: The global attractiveness of Chinese assets continues to rise

Zhu Yexin, a member of the party committee of CITIC Securities, executive committee member of the management committee, and head of the research department, emphasized in his opening speech that 2026 is a year of extraordinary historical significance. It is not only the beginning of the “14th Five-Year” plan, but also a critical period for China to comprehensively advance towards the goal of achieving basic socialist modernization by 2035. The Chinese economy and capital market are ushering in a new situation.

He stated that China is responding to the uncertainty of the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development. The government’s work report for 2026 clearly sets this year’s economic growth target at 4.5%-5%. This target aligns with China’s long-term goal for 2035 and reflects the emphasis on the quality of economic growth, providing more room for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and promoting reform.

He pointed out that the “14th Five-Year” plan emphasizes building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy. It proposes to construct a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone. New productive forces represented by artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and biotechnology are moving from conceptual exploration to industrial implementation, rewriting the main line of economic and market growth. More encouragingly, the internationalization of the renminbi and Chinese companies going global are forming a strong strategic resonance, opening up vast imaginative space for the systemic revaluation of Chinese assets.

In Zhu Yexin’s view, the global attractiveness of Chinese assets continues to rise. Driven by both the recovery of fundamentals and the influx of new capital, the A-share market is at a critical turning point from stock game to incremental allocation, and a new ecological capital market that is more resilient and robust has already taken shape.

Qiu Xiang: Spring is a period for rebuilding confidence, focusing on China’s manufacturing advantages

CITIC Securities Chief A-share Strategist Qiu Xiang believes that geopolitical turmoil coincides with the index reaching a critical juncture, making spring a period for rebuilding confidence and making decisions on the index. In the context of rising global energy costs and weakening financial conditions, undervaluation and pricing power are the two most important factors. In terms of allocation, he firmly suggests focusing on the revaluation of pricing power in China’s manufacturing advantages.

Qiu Xiang stated that the recovery of corporate profit margins is key to the continuation of the A-share bull market in the next phase. He believes that amidst rising global costs and weakening financial conditions, undervaluation and pricing power are the two most crucial elements. For allocation, he recommends resolutely focusing on the revaluation of pricing power in China’s manufacturing advantages, with a focus on chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy. Price increases remain the core trading clue, while also increasing exposure to undervalued factors such as insurance, brokerage, and electricity.

Ming Ming: The economy is expected to continue to recover amidst fluctuations

Regarding the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, CITIC Securities Chief Economist Ming Ming pointed out that the Chinese economy is expected to continue to recover amidst fluctuations in 2026. He predicts that China’s real GDP growth rate may remain around 4.9%, with the annual growth possibly showing a “V” shape, and nominal GDP is expected to rebound quickly amid rising inflation.

In terms of macro policy, Ming Ming believes that fiscal policy will remain proactive, maintaining a deficit ratio of 4%. Special bonds are expected to tilt towards project construction, and the scale of policy-based financial tools will increase to 800 billion, with quasi-fiscal efforts gaining strength. Regarding monetary policy, there is room for “flexibly and efficiently utilizing” interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with expectations of 1-2 interest rate cuts and 1 reserve requirement ratio cut throughout the year, while structural tools will play a larger role.

Discussing the global landscape, Ming Ming noted that the global economic pattern is expected to enter a rebalancing phase. The U.S. economy faces structural issues, and the intertwining of inflation and economic weakness makes the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut pace cautious. In terms of major asset classes, equity assets have strong cost performance amid recovery and rising inflation; government bond yields may fluctuate around 1.8% in the short term; the renminbi is expected to appreciate moderately in a weaker dollar environment.

Yang Fan: Domestic economic demand is recovering moderately, and reforms are advancing in multiple dimensions

CITIC Securities Chief Analyst for Macroeconomics and Policy Yang Fan believes that the current macro and policy situation presents a pattern of “reform breakthroughs and industrial leaps.” She pointed out that domestic economic demand is recovering moderately, and reforms are advancing in multiple dimensions.

In terms of deepening reforms, the debt reduction effort has entered the final sprint phase, income distribution reform continues to deepen, focusing on narrowing the income gap and expanding the middle-income group; anti-involution efforts balance short-term capacity control with long-term systemic transformation to resolve industry dilemmas. On the industrial side, the focus is on energy security and the aerospace power strategy, speeding up the construction of a modern industrial system, and emerging future industries are welcoming development opportunities.

Yin Yanlin: Macro policies will become more proactive and innovative

Yin Yanlin, a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, emphasized the four strategic directions highlighted in the “14th Five-Year” plan to promote high-quality development and strengthen the domestic circulation. He outlined 109 major engineering projects. Regarding economic work in 2026, he believes that macro policies will become more proactive and innovative, focusing on building a strong domestic market and cultivating new productive forces. He summarized that as long as confidence is firm and innovation is practical, the goals and tasks for the first year of the “14th Five-Year” plan will surely be successfully achieved.