Institutions | Conservatively forecasted with a 12% growth rate, the number of domestic trips will exceed 7.2 billion by 2026.

What will deep experiential transformation in the tourism market reshape in consumer trends?

On March 27, the MaiPoint Research Institute released the 2025 China Tourism Market Analysis Report.

In 2025, the international tourism market will grow steadily, and tourist spending will remain strong. According to the “World Tourism Economic Trends Report (2026)” released by the World Tourism Cities Federation, the total number of global tourists in 2025 will reach 15.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; total tourism revenue will reach $6.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.

The Chinese tourism market is recovering strongly, with growth rates far exceeding the global average, becoming the core engine driving global tourism growth.

In terms of domestic travel, the number of domestic residents traveling in 2025 will reach 6.522 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%; total domestic tourism spending will reach 6.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Urban and rural tourism consumption will rise simultaneously, with rural tourism growth leading the way. The comprehensive driving effect of cultural and tourism consumption is evident, with a vibrant development in performing arts economy, night economy, ticket economy, ice and snow economy, effectively extending the consumption chain.

Inbound tourism will achieve a historic breakthrough, with the number of inbound tourists exceeding 154 million for the year, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%; inbound tourism consumption will reach $131.1 billion, with significant growth from foreign tourists. The facilitation of visa-free entry, upgrades in cross-border payment systems, and an increase in direct flight routes will jointly promote the quantity and quality of inbound tourism, making China one of the world’s top tourist destinations.

Outbound tourism will continue its steady growth trend, with China’s travel service imports reaching $253.78 billion in 2025, maintaining its position as the world’s largest. Overall, the three major tourism markets—domestic, inbound, and outbound—are thriving and experiencing increases in both volume and price. As the “14th Five-Year Plan” comes to a close, China’s tourism industry presents an impressive “report card.”

Looking ahead to 2026, on an international level, intensified geopolitical conflicts, disruptions to air networks, and slowing global economic growth will undermine tourist confidence and affect travel safety and costs, posing multiple challenges and uncertainties for the international tourism industry. According to the World Tourism Organization’s predictions, assuming continued recovery in the Asia-Pacific tourism sector, favorable global economic conditions, and no escalation of geopolitical conflicts, international tourist numbers are expected to grow by 3% to 4% compared to 2025.

In travel forecasts, National Geographic magazine believes that trends such as the return of retro styles, the rise of “event travel,” first-time experiences featuring indigenous cultures, niche healing journeys, and a cruise boom among Generation Z will become core trends. Global tourism authority media Skift has released 19 development trends, including experiential retail, live tourism with music residencies, a strong return of high-end travel in Asia, the emergence of African tourism, and a “second spring” for train travel. The future tourism market will accelerate its transformation towards deep experiences, individual expression, and cultural resonance, with the rise of diverse sub-sectors continuing to reshape the value and form of global travel.

Looking ahead to 2026, on a domestic level, the “15th Five-Year Plan” is kicking off, with provinces across the country establishing key focuses and goals for tourism development, aiming for deep integration of culture and tourism as the main line, setting targets for strong tourism provinces and tourism brand building, and fully embarking on a new journey of high-quality development. In the market, as residents’ spending power increases, tourism supply continues to optimize, transportation infrastructure becomes more convenient, and vacation systems are improved and enriched (including legal holidays and spring and autumn breaks), residents’ enthusiasm for travel will continue to rise. Based on a conservative growth forecast of 12%, the number of domestic trips in 2026 is expected to exceed 7.2 billion; considering the conservative and rational nature of resident consumption and the difficulty of significantly increasing income in the short term, total travel spending is estimated to grow at a rate of 8%, with anticipated total domestic travel spending reaching 6.8 trillion yuan in 2026.

In 2026, China will continue to expand high-level opening-up, with visa facilitation policies and favorable conditions for inbound tourism continuing to strengthen (for example, the issuance of the “Policy Measures for Promoting Travel Service Exports and Expanding Inbound Consumption” by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments on March 20), and international routes recovering rapidly. The number of inbound tourists will maintain steady growth. Considering the relatively high base in 2025 and a normalization of growth in 2026, it is estimated that the total number of inbound tourists will exceed 170 million, with inbound tourism spending projected to grow at a rate of 30%, reaching a total of $170 billion in 2026.