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[U.S. Stock Market] Iran claims its nuclear facilities were airstruck by the U.S. and Israel; oil prices rise 2%, gold jumps 3%. U.S. Treasury yields reach 4.46%. The Dow drops 480 points (updating continuously).
Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10-day extension on the bombardment of Iranian power plants, which did not ease market concerns. Instead, there are worries that prolonged warfare will affect oil supply, exacerbating the global economic impact, and leading to concerns that central banks worldwide may enter a rate hike cycle. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is reported at 4.46%, the highest in over eight months; the yield on the 20-year Treasury bond has even exceeded 5%, the first time since July of last year.
Iran claims that its nuclear facilities were hit by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including a nuclear facility with a heavy-water reactor and a plant for processing uranium “yellowcake.” Preliminary investigations indicate that the incident did not cause any radioactive material to leak outside the complex.
According to Iranian media reports, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran’s Khondab nuclear facility, where a heavy-water research reactor was struck by airstrikes.
As reported by Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on the Khuzestan steel plant and the Mobarak steel plant in Isfahan on Friday (27th), which included an assault on the power plant associated with Mobarak steel.
U.S. stocks saw an expanded decline during the afternoon session. As of 1 PM Hong Kong time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 45,459 points, down 500 points; the S&P 500 index was at 6,407 points, down 1.1%; and the Nasdaq was at 21,080 points, down 1.5%.
Oil prices continued to rise, with New York crude oil up 3.6% to $97.91, Brent crude for May up 2.4% to $110.57, and June crude oil up 2.1% to $104.02.
Gold prices rose over 3%, with New York futures at $4,543, up 3%, and spot gold at $4,512, also up 3%.
Funds continued to flow into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, with the dollar index surpassing 100. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) noted that, at a tactical level, they maintain a neutral stance on the dollar. On one hand, this reflects the favorable trade conditions enjoyed by the U.S., the world’s largest net energy exporter, amid the current energy crisis. On the other hand, it also reflects the dollar’s status as a defensive asset during market volatility. Given the current inflation situation, we believe the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut rates compared to the past. In their baseline scenario, they anticipate only one rate cut at most by 2026, lower than the previously expected one to two cuts.
The bank expects that within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will gradually resume the trend of diversifying away from the dollar, exerting mild downward pressure on the dollar and causing it to weaken against some major currencies. This outlook reflects market uncertainty regarding U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability while other economies such as Australia and China show relative improvement. However, the risk of a stronger dollar remains, and the longer the disruption to energy supply lasts, the more pronounced this risk becomes.
The Hong Kong stock and ADR market situation is continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page
Market Trends:
[18:29] Trump extends the ultimatum deadline by 10 days; Dow futures drop 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%; the dollar and long-term Treasury yields both rise.
[15:11] Dow futures rose 177 points, reaching 46,407 points, S&P futures up 29 points to 6,554 points, Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5% to 23,905 points.
[15:11] Oil prices showed mixed movements, with New York crude down 0.3% at $94.24, and Brent crude up nearly 0.1% at $108.11. Gold prices rose over 1%, with New York futures at $4,487, up 1.8%, and spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.
[13:25][AI + Memory] Google unveils new technology TurboQuant for distributed storage; chip stocks described by Morgan Stanley as “another DeepSeek moment”; analysis: positive for cloud service giants.
[11:26][Dollar Bills] Trump’s signature to appear on the new version of U.S. currency, breaking a 165-year tradition for U.S. presidents.
[11:15][Yen Trends] The yen is pegged at 4.91 to the Hong Kong dollar; Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama hints at possible intervention in the currency market.
[10:56][AAPL] Apple unusually grants bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.
[10:49][U.S. Interest Rates] Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: Energy price hikes have limited impact on inflation; current interest rate stance is appropriate.
[10:24][AI + OpenAI] OpenAI’s advertising revenue in the U.S. has exceeded $100 million within six weeks; expansion to more countries expected in the coming weeks.
[10:07][Gold Price Trends] Gold prices recover some losses as Trump delays the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran; the Turkish central bank’s sale of over $8 billion in gold exacerbates downward pressure on gold prices.
[10:06][Iran Crisis] Trump: Extends negotiation deadline to April 6; “Iranian representatives politely requested 7 days, I gave 10 days.” (Continuously updated)
[09:59][NFLX] Netflix raises monthly subscription fees for all U.S. customers, with increases of over 12%.
[09:28][New IPOs] Anthropic reportedly considers going public as early as October, potentially raising over $60 billion.
[08:47][New IPOs] SpaceX reportedly plans to hold an investor briefing in April and intends to allocate up to 30% of its IPO quota to retail investors.
[08:16][AI + Siri] Apple’s Siri undergoes a “major overhaul”; reports suggest Apple plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.
$1 below reflects the U.S. stock market conditions as of March 26====
Thursday: Trump extends the bombardment of Iranian power plants by 10 days; oil prices fluctuate.
Former U.S. President Trump stated on the social platform Truth Social, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent my decision to pause the destruction of the power plants for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the fake news media and others spreading contradictory false statements, the talks are proceeding very smoothly.”
Brent crude oil once evaporated a 7% increase; however, due to the information still indicating that the Strait of Hormuz faces an additional 10 days of blockade, oil prices rebounded by 5% to $107.
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Concerns about inflation persist, with the U.S. 10-year bond yield rising to 4.412%, an increase of 0.079%, and the dollar index rising 0.3% to 99.93.
The Dow closed down 469 points at 45,960; the S&P closed down 1.7% at 6,477; the Nasdaq closed down 2.4% at 21,408.
Trump stated during a Cabinet meeting that the U.S. would continue to strike against Iran until an agreement to end the conflict is reached. He confirmed during the meeting that the U.S. plans to keep the war with Iran lasting only four to six weeks.
Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by the Iranian negotiating representatives was to allow at least eight tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump stated that these vessels’ ability to pass through the strait sends a signal to the U.S. that the negotiating representatives are indicating “we are serious and reliable.” Trump said these tankers might be flying the Pakistani flag. He continued, “I said at the time, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of the things they had said and indicated they would send two more ships.” The White House declined to provide further details about the tankers.
Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that the Iranian negotiating representatives are quite unusual and somewhat “weird.” On one hand, they “pleaded” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he deemed reasonable. However, they publicly stated that they were only considering the U.S. proposals. He bluntly stated that this was a big mistake and urged Iran to take the negotiations seriously as soon as possible, or it would be too late, with dire consequences!
He later stated in an interview that the Iranian issue would be resolved soon and that energy prices would fall, perhaps even to lower levels. He did not indicate whether he was willing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago, missing that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. has completely destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of missile and missile launch systems, and indicated that Iran should use nuclear weapons against Israel and other countries in the region, as well as the U.S.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources stating that Iran formally responded to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire agreement on Wednesday (25th) and is awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that enemy aggression and terrorism must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented on all fronts and against all resistance organizations involved in the combat in the entire region.
Egypt confirmed its participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran and is involved in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate the regional situation.
Schroeder pointed out that the development of the Iran conflict still presents multiple possibilities, making the economic and financial market outlook difficult to predict: if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel or fall below $90 per barrel, the global economy would look entirely different. Compared to February, the probability of both extreme scenarios has increased, while the probability of the previously moderate “economic stability” scenario has correspondingly decreased.
The bank indicated that, given the inflationary pressures caused by oil price shocks, they have raised the probability of an “overheating” economic scenario; however, this assessment remains lower than the probabilities implied by the market. Central banks around the world will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.
The Hong Kong stock and ADR market situation is continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page
Market Trends:
[23:00] Trump: The Iranian issue will be resolved soon; energy prices will fall. Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 75 points, oil prices up 4%.
[21:30] Trump urges Iranian negotiating representatives to take negotiations seriously; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 218 points, oil prices up 4%.
[18:15] Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%; oil prices up 4%, gold prices retreat after two consecutive days of gains.
[14:27] Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521 points; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611 points; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241 points.
[14:27] Oil prices up 2%; New York crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices retreat after two days of gains; New York futures down 3% at $4,446, spot gold down 1.7% at $4,429.
[14:19][Private Equity] Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns: The private market hides a “fire” crisis; not selling assets could trigger massive impairments.
[13:39][U.S. Stock Analysis] Dow rises 300 points; analysis: The current rebound is trading on a ceasefire, expecting the U.S.-Iran conflict to be difficult to resolve in the short term, and oil prices will rise again.
[11:58][Iran Crisis] BlackRock’s CEO warns investors not to underestimate the risks of the Iran war; even if “the war is declared over tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150.
[11:43][AI + Meta] Massive AI investments; Meta initiates a new round of layoffs affecting hundreds.
[10:47][Dollar Trends] Morgan Stanley: The rise of the dollar could be a “bull trap”; the market underestimates the adverse effects of the Iran war on the U.S. economy; expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year.
[10:15][U.S. Rate Cuts] Federal Reserve Governor Milan raises rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, citing reasons other than oil prices and Iran.
[09:28][Gold Price Trends] Gold prices halt nine consecutive declines! Spot gold rises above the $4,500 level; in Hong Kong, the gold price rebounds by $1,800 in a single day.
[08:54][ARM + Chips] Arm rises 8% after hours; will sell its own chips for the first time, expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, with Meta as its first major customer.
[08:26][New IPOs] SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.
[08:23][Iran Crisis] Trump: Iran will deliver a big gift today; Rubio and Vance participate in negotiations, with the premise being “they can never possess nuclear weapons.” (Continuously updated)
[08:01][AI + AMZN] Software stocks are again in trouble; Amazon reportedly developing a new AI agent to replace some departmental functions.
$1 below reflects the U.S. stock market conditions as of March 24====
Tuesday: U.S. reportedly seeks talks with Iran on Thursday; Brent oil stabilizes, Dow’s losses narrow.
Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. is engaging with Iran on a ceasefire plan, with Axios reporting that the U.S. and mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still waiting for Tehran’s response.
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Iranian officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations but confirmed that the U.S. had sent messages and proposals.
Oil prices remained cautious, with Brent crude up 0.2% at $100.17, and New York crude up 4.8% at $92.35.
Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold up 1.6% at $4,475.51, while spot silver prices remained relatively stable at $71.2194.
The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.23, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year bond remained high at 4.36%.
U.S. stocks were soft, with the Dow previously down 438 points, hitting a low of 45,769 points, closing down 84 points at 46,124 points. The S&P was down 0.4% to 6,556 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% to 21,761 points.
Trump has postponed the ultimatum by five days, but sporadic attacks continue between Israel and Iran. The Prime Minister of Pakistan stated his willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.
Market news indicates that Iran has begun charging certain merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a toll, with fees collected on a temporary basis, with a maximum of $2 million per single passage, effectively establishing an informal “toll” on this waterway. Some vessels have reportedly paid the relevant fees, but the specific payment mechanism remains unclear, including which currency is used.
On Tuesday, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that a vessel flying the Thai flag successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after close coordination with Iranian authorities.
According to Israeli media Ynet, the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date for ending the war with Iran, indicating there are over two weeks for fighting and negotiations, with Washington striving to end hostilities by the end of April.
Reports indicate that if the conflict is resolved around April 9 as scheduled, Trump plans to visit the area around Israel’s Independence Day on May 14. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating, trying to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran, possibly initiating preliminary contacts this week in Pakistan, but both sides have not formally confirmed this.
Additionally, according to reports from Russian media cited by CCTV, a journalist and international relations researcher from Oman, Salem Al-Jahuri, confirmed on the BBC Arabic channel that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to pay substantial costs for U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.
The report mentioned that Trump demanded substantial “protection fees” from Arab allies, either paying $5 trillion (approximately HKD 39 trillion) to continue the conflict or $2.5 trillion (approximately HKD 19.5 trillion) to end the war, claiming this is compensation for “achievements made.”
The Hong Kong stock and ADR market situation is continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page
Market Trends:
[22:50] Reports indicate Iran is charging tolls for merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil prices rebound 3%.
[21:30] Pakistan indicates readiness to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil prices rebound 4%.
[18:00][Iran Crisis] Is there hope for U.S.-Iran war? Reports indicate Trump demands exorbitant protection fees: $2.5 trillion to end the war.
[16:00][Iran Crisis] Reports suggest the U.S. has set April 9 as the “end of war date”; Iran continues to deny.
[14:00] Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264, S&P futures down 38 points at 6,596, Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% at 24,258.
[14:00] Oil prices rebound; New York crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%, Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices continue to weaken, with New York futures down 0.9% at $4,400; spot gold down 1.1% at $4,357.
[14:00][Iran Crisis] DBS: Gold prices are likely to be affected by ongoing fluctuations in the Middle East conflict; maintains a year-end target of $6,250.
[13:23][AI + OpenAI] OpenAI reportedly offers private equity firms favorable conditions; 17.5% guaranteed return to compete in the corporate AI market.
[13:08][OnlyFans] OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky has passed away due to cancer, aged 43.
[12:34][Gold Price Trends] Gold prices continue to weaken after nine consecutive declines; in Hong Kong, the gold price drops below 40,000.
[12:15][Switch 2] Nintendo plans to reduce Switch 2 production by about 33% this season; cuts may continue until April.
[11:51][Gold Price Trends] Gold prices have fallen over 20% from their highs, entering a bear market; Morgan Stanley: Funds are flowing from safe-haven assets to the stock market, a positive signal for U.S. stocks.
[11:19][Iran Crisis] The Ministry of Finance reportedly ordered an assessment of the supply chain for oil-related products to respond to the crisis.
[10:36][AI + Investment] BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge against impacts through holdings.
[08:37][AI + OpenAI] OpenAI states in investor documents that its reliance on Microsoft poses risks; what other risks exist?
[08:08][Iran Crisis] Federal Reserve official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to address risks.
[07:48][AI + Apple] Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will take place from June 8, expected to unveil a series of AI features.
[06:32][Iran Crisis] The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament denies ever negotiating with Trump; the UK destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean. (Continuously updated)
$1 below reflects the U.S. stock market conditions as of March 23====
Monday: Trump’s statements continue to be questioned; Dow’s gains halved to 631 points, oil prices continue to drop by 10%.
Former U.S. President Trump claimed to have negotiated with Iran, pausing strikes on power plants, which led to a decline in oil prices and a rebound in the stock market. The Dow had risen by 1,134 points, peaking at 46,712 points, while the S&P had risen by 2.2%, peaking at 6,651 points, and the Nasdaq had risen by 2.5%, peaking at 22,189 points. The closing gains narrowed, with the Dow closing up 631 points at 46,208 points, the S&P up 1.1% at 6,581 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946 points.
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Oil prices once dropped by 14.1%, closing down 10%, with New York crude closing at $88.13 and Brent crude at $100.5. Spot gold prices once dropped by 7%, hitting a low of $4,099.18, closing down 1.9% at $4,407.18.
Macquarie Group’s global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman stated, “We are cautiously skeptical about the news and tweets regarding an imminent ‘breakthrough’ this morning,” believing that the war is unlikely to continue beyond April as Iran’s threats may diminish by then, but large-scale military operations are also unlikely to end within the week.
Trump stated on the social platform Truth Social that negotiations with Iran had gone smoothly over the past two days, indicating that the Pentagon had been instructed to suspend all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on successful ongoing meetings and discussions.
Trump later pointed out that both countries had reached multiple consensuses during negotiations and had discussed potential candidates for Iranian leadership, also stating that Iran had agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons. However, he simultaneously mentioned that if U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations would continue.
However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later cited Iranian sources stating that the U.S. and Iran had not engaged in negotiations, nor were there any ongoing talks. They also indicated that U.S. attacks continue and that the Strait of Hormuz will not revert to its pre-conflict state. Another agency, Mehr, later quoted Iranian Foreign Ministry sources indicating that Trump’s statements are aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for his military plans.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry subsequently expressed that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should be the dialogue partner, as the war was not instigated by Iran.
Trump later responded further, stating that negotiations took place on Sunday (22nd) night, emphasizing Iran’s urgent desire to reach an agreement, admitting he did not understand why Iranian media would refute his statements.
T. Rowe Price noted that following the Iranian attacks, gold prices experienced a typical safe-haven surge, but the momentum could not be sustained, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the events. Investors did not view it as a persistent geopolitical shock but were more inclined to view it as an inflationary event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed real interest rates higher, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which are unfavorable for gold prices.
Gold prices had already accumulated considerable gains before the event, limiting the room for new safe-haven inflows. The outlook for gold prices will continue to be influenced by both macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and central bank policy expectations will be crucial, while attention must also be paid to energy prices and the dollar’s performance. The bank still regards gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks, along with an unclear policy outlook, provides some support for gold prices, even if short-term price movements may still remain volatile.
The Hong Kong stock and ADR market situation is continuously updated; for details, please see: Next Page
Market Trends:
[22:15] Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points, oil prices drop by 10%.
[21:30] Trump postpones the ultimatum by five days, stating negotiations with Iran are underway; Dow rebounds 744 points, oil prices drop by 8%.
[20:10] Iran denies negotiations are taking place; Dow futures’ gains narrow, oil prices drop by 5%.
[19:10] Trump: Progress in negotiations with Iran, postponing the ultimatum by five days; Dow futures turn up 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil prices drop by 10%.
[14:13] Dow futures down 200 points at 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points at 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% at 23,934.
[14:13] New York crude up 0.8% at $98.97; Brent crude up 0.6% at $112.85.
[14:13][Gold Price Trends] Spot gold prices drop below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; in Hong Kong, the gold price drops again by $1,000, retreating by $10,000 from its peak.
[13:25][Oil Price Trends] Goldman Sachs warns of “the largest supply shock in history” in the oil market, raising its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85.
[13:15][Iran Crisis] IEA Director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged”; the impact of the conflict is equivalent to the combined effects of the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.
[11:40][Yen Trends] The yen is pegged at 4.9 to the Hong Kong dollar; Japanese officials reiterate “export tactics”: ready to take all necessary measures to respond to currency fluctuations.
[11:21][Iran Crisis] Japan and South Korea’s stock markets experience a “Black Monday”; South Korean stocks drop 5% again, triggering the sixth “Sidecar” mechanism of the year; the Nikkei index fell over 2,600 points at one point.
[10:56][AI + Chips] Musk: The Terafab project will be established in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX will operate jointly.
[07:30][Iran Crisis] The ultimatum countdown is at 1 day; Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure; oil prices remain volatile. (Continuously updated)
[07:30][External Preview] Continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East; pay attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials; U.S. March Manufacturing PMI to be released on Tuesday.
[07:30] The Iran conflict escalates, with U.S. President Trump stating on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, with the Dow’s decline at one point exceeding 600 points; U.S. long-term bond yields hit a six-month high, with the market’s latest expectation of a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577; the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.01%.
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U.S. stock market dynamics from last week, for details see: U.S. stock market closing | Trump states he does not want a ceasefire; Dow falls 443 points; U.S. long-term bond yields hit six-month high; September rate hike chance reaches 40%.