One month after the new Shanghai real estate policy, the transaction area of new homes reaches the highest weekly level since 2026.

Reporter Zhang Xiangyi

On February 25, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Administration and four other departments jointly issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City’s Real Estate Policies” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), introducing seven measures to further reduce housing purchase restrictions, optimize housing provident fund loan policies, and improve personal property tax policies for housing.

Since the release of the “Notice” one month ago, positive changes have emerged in the Shanghai real estate market. According to estimates from the real estate data platform Iceberg Index, as of March 24, the transaction volume in Shanghai’s second-hand housing market has increased by 4% year-on-year since March. Data from the China Index Academy shows that in the second week of March (March 9 to March 15), transactions of newly built commodity residential buildings in Shanghai reached 220,000 square meters, a 62% increase from the previous week, marking a weekly high since 2026.

“The reaction of the second-hand housing market to this round of policy adjustments is more direct, with the market showing a certain degree of recovery first, characterized significantly by demand from first-time homebuyers,” said Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Research Department at the China Index Academy, to reporters from the Securities Daily. From the perspective of total price characteristics, there has been an increase in transaction volume for low total price properties, and after price adjustments, the cost-performance ratio has become more evident. As favorable policies are released, the willingness of first-time homebuyers, who were previously waiting, to enter the market has increased, driving up the transaction volume for low total price properties.

It is worth noting that the new listing volume of second-hand homes in Shanghai has contracted, and the inventory pressure in the second-hand housing market has eased.

According to statistics from the China Index Academy, from the perspective of listings by major agencies, the new listing volume of second-hand homes in Shanghai in the first two weeks of March decreased by 27% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. At the same time, the number of listed properties has also shown a downward trend, with the total listing volume of major agencies at the end of February down 30.7% from the peak in October of last year, falling to a low level seen in nearly three years.

Cao Jingjing believes that the recent simultaneous decline in new and existing listings in Shanghai reflects an improvement in market expectations among some homeowners, which helps ease short-term supply-demand contradictions and creates favorable conditions for market stabilization.

The “Notice” shortens the required duration of social insurance or individual income tax contributions for non-Shanghai residents purchasing housing within the outer ring, and proposes that “eligible non-Shanghai residents can purchase one additional housing unit within the outer ring,” clearly lowering the threshold for home purchases.

At the same time, the “Notice” increases the maximum loan amount for the housing provident fund, optimizes the criteria for loan counts, expands the support range for families with multiple children when purchasing homes, and lowers the cost of home purchases for residents.

With policy support, the new housing market has also seen some recovery. “Since the new policy was released on February 25, the number of visits to some high-quality projects has increased, and transaction volumes have subsequently warmed up,” Cao Jingjing stated. Due to the rhythm of supply, the recovery of the new housing market lags behind that of the second-hand housing market, but positive signals have emerged under the influence of policies. Additionally, in March, the pace of property companies launching new projects has clearly accelerated, and improvement-oriented projects are expected to support the market.

“I have been working overtime every weekend in March, and there have also been many clients during weekdays. Last Thursday, I had four groups of clients revisiting,” a salesperson from a new residential project in Shanghai’s Songjiang District told reporters. The effects of the new policy and the peak sales season in March have both contributed to increased visitor numbers and transaction volumes for the project.

Cao Jingjing believes that if the current market sentiment can be maintained, Shanghai is expected to sustain a high level of activity during the “small spring” market from March to April. However, it should be noted that market stabilization is a gradual process, and the sustainability of this trend still relies on improvements in residents’ income expectations and housing price expectations.

Regarding how subsequent policies should support market activity, Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, stated that there are still bottlenecks in the cycle of demand from first-time and improvement buyers. This is mainly due to the long transaction cycle of second-hand homes and significant discounts on final selling prices, leading to longer and costlier cycles for upgrading. The policy level needs to promote second-hand home exchanges through government storage and market efforts.