Everbright Futures: March 27 Financial Daily

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Stock Index:

(Wang Donghan, Professional Qualification Number: F03087149; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019537)

Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.34%. The U.S.-Iran conflict saw both sides intensively releasing battle reports and subsequent plans, causing disturbances in the capital markets, with oil prices fluctuating significantly, initially dropping before rising. Previously, the Federal Reserve held a meeting, maintaining the interest rate level unchanged, with Powell adopting a hawkish stance, emphasizing that he will not leave the Fed until his personal investigation case is resolved; the dot plot shows only one rate cut expectation for this year. Risk aversion in the capital markets has increased, the U.S. dollar index continues to rise, global bond yields have generally gone up, and precious metals have significantly corrected, all pointing to expectations of tightened liquidity. Major global stock indices have shown significant declines, with emerging markets leading the drop. In the medium term, if global tech stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong tech sector in A-shares may experience a valuation correction. It is recommended to balance the allocation of large and small-cap indices and to hedge risks effectively.

Government Bonds:

(Zhu Jintao, Professional Qualification Number: F3060829; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0015271)

Yesterday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up 0.22%, the 10-year main contract up 0.08%, the 5-year main contract up 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract up 0.02%. The People’s Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 224 billion yuan on March 26, with a winning rate of 1.4%, the same as the last winning rate. According to qeubee statistics, 13 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured in the open market, resulting in a net injection of 211 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the weighted rate of DR001 remained flat at 1.3205%, while the weighted rate of DR007 decreased by 0.09 basis points to 1.4437%. Overall, the current macroeconomic environment is in a good development stage of steady recovery, structural optimization, and mild inflation, which is bearish for the bond market. In the short term, a bearish trend is dominant, with longer-term rates under more significant pressure, while short-term rates are relatively stable due to funding support.

Precious Metals:

(Zhan Dapeng, Professional Qualification Number: F3013795; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0013582)

Overnight, London spot precious metals fluctuated and retreated, with the gold-silver ratio running around 64, and the spot platinum-palladium price spread narrowing to around $450 per ounce. Regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict, Trump stated that at the request of the Iranian government, the strike would be postponed to 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6, and U.S.-Iran negotiations are ongoing and progressing very smoothly, despite claims of fake news to the contrary. The direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations and conflicts remains uncertain, and the market is repeatedly pricing in the volatility of the macro environment, which means gold prices may be in a high volatility range. Cautious investors may continue to watch, while aggressive investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying low and holding. The current movements of silver, platinum, and palladium are following gold’s fluctuations, making operations more difficult. Gold plays a significant role as a “safe haven” among precious metals; attention should be paid to when gold prices return to an upward channel, waiting for the right timing to act.

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Editor: Li Tiemin