[US Stock Market] Iran claims nuclear facilities were bombed by the US and Israel, Dow drops 500 points, oil rises 2%, gold jumps 3%, US bond yields hit 4.46% (( ongoing updates)

U.S. President Trump stated that the deadline for bombing Iran’s power plants has been extended by another 10 days, which has not provided any relief to the markets. Instead, there are concerns that a prolonged conflict could impact oil supply, exacerbating the global economic impact, and raising fears that central banks worldwide may enter a rate hike cycle. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is reported at 4.46%, reaching a high not seen in over 8 months; the 20-year Treasury yield has even surpassed 5%, the first time since July of last year.

Iran claims that its nuclear facilities were attacked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including a nuclear facility equipped with a heavy water reactor and a production plant for uranium processing materials known as “yellowcake.” Preliminary investigations show that the incident did not cause any radioactive materials to leak outside the complex.

According to Iranian media reports, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran’s Khondab nuclear facility, where a heavy water research reactor was hit by airstrikes.

As reported by Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran’s Khuzestan steel plant and Isfahan Mubarak steel plant on Friday (27th), with the associated power plant at Mubarak also coming under attack.

U.S. stocks saw a widening drop in the afternoon session. As of 1 PM Hong Kong time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was reported at 45459 points, down 500 points; the S&P 500 index was reported at 6407 points, down 1.1%; and the Nasdaq was reported at 21080 points, down 1.5%.

Oil prices continued to rise, with New York crude oil up 3.6%, reported at $97.91, Brent May crude oil up 2.4%, reported at $110.57, and June crude oil up 2.1%, reported at $104.02.

Gold prices rose over 3%, with New York futures gold reported at $4543, up 3%, while spot gold was reported at $4512, up 3%.

Funds continue to flow into the dollar as a safe haven, with the U.S. dollar index rising above 100. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) noted that the tactical stance on the dollar remains neutral, considering that the U.S. is the world’s largest net energy exporter, enjoying more favorable trade conditions amid the current energy crisis, while also reflecting the dollar’s defensive asset status during market volatility. Given the current inflation situation, we believe that the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut rates compared to the past. In the baseline scenario, we expect a maximum of only one rate cut in 2026, lower than the previous expectation of one to two cuts.

The bank expects that within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will gradually revert to a trend of diversifying away from the dollar, exerting moderate downward pressure on the dollar, leading to its depreciation against some major currencies. This outlook reflects ongoing market uncertainty regarding U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while other economies such as Australia and China show relatively improved prospects. However, upside risks for the dollar still exist, and the longer the disruption in energy supply lasts, the more pronounced these risks become.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; please see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【18:29】Trump extends the ultimatum by 10 days; Dow futures down 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%; USD and long-term Treasury yields both rise.

【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points, reported at 46407 points; S&P futures up 29 points, reported at 6554 points; Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5%, reported at 23905 points.

【15:11】Oil prices show mixed developments, with New York crude oil down 0.3%, reported at $94.24; Brent crude oil up nearly 0.1%, reported at $108.11. Gold prices rose over 1%, with New York futures gold reported at $4487, up 1.8%; spot gold reported at $4451, up 1.7%.

【13:25】【AI + Memory】Google unveils new technology TurboQuant for scatter storage; chip stocks—Morgan Stanley describes it as “another DeepSeek moment.” Analysts say it benefits cloud service giants.

【11:26】【USD Bills】Trump’s signature will appear on the new U.S. bills, breaking a 165-year tradition for U.S. presidents.

【11:15】【Yen Trends】The yen is trading at 4.91 against the HKD; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama hints at possible intervention in the currency market.

【10:56】【AAPL】Apple unusually grants bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.

【10:49】【U.S. Rates】Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson: Energy price increases have limited impact on inflation; current interest rate stance is appropriate.

【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI’s U.S. advertising revenue has exceeded $100 million within six weeks, set to expand to more countries in the coming weeks.

【10:07】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices recover some ground; Trump delays the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran; the Turkish central bank sells over $8 billion worth of gold, intensifying downward pressure on gold prices.

【10:06】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Extends negotiation deadline to April 6; “Iranian representatives politely requested 7 days, I gave 10 days.” (continuously updated)

【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises monthly fees for all U.S. subscriber plans, with increases of up to over 12%.

【09:28】【New Stock IPO】Anthropic reportedly considers going public as early as October, potentially raising over $60 billion.

【08:47】【New Stock IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to hold an investor briefing in April, aiming to allocate up to 30% of the IPO quota to retail investors.

【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s Siri gets a “major overhaul”; reports suggest Apple plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.

$1 or less for the U.S. stock market situation on March 26====

Thursday: Trump further extends the deadline for bombing Iran’s power plants; oil prices fluctuate.

U.S. President Trump stated on the social platform Truth Social, “At the request of the Iranian government, let this statement represent my suspension of the destruction period for the power plants for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the fake news media and others spreading contrary false statements, the talks are progressing very smoothly.”

Brent futures oil once evaporated a 7% gain; however, due to the message still indicating that the Strait of Hormuz faces another 10 days of blockade, oil prices surged again by 5%, reaching $107.

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Inflation concerns persist, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.412%, an increase of 0.079%. The dollar index rose 0.3%, reported at 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points, ending at 45960 points; the S&P dropped 1.7%, closing at 6477 points; the Nasdaq fell 2.4%, closing at 21408 points.

Trump stated at a cabinet meeting that the U.S. will continue to strike at Iran until an agreement to end the conflict is reached. He confirmed during the meeting that the U.S. still plans to keep the war with Iran limited to just four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by Iranian negotiating representatives was to allow at least 8 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump stated that these vessels being allowed to pass through the strait is a signal to the U.S., showing that the negotiating representatives are indicating “we are real and reliable.” Trump mentioned that these oil tankers might fly the Pakistani flag. He continued, “At that time, I said, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of the things they said.” The White House declined to provide further details regarding the oil tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, stating that the Iranian negotiating representatives were quite unusual and a bit “weird.” On one hand, they “pleaded” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he deemed understandable. However, they publicly stated they were only considering the U.S. proposals. He stated it was a significant mistake and advised Iran to take the negotiations seriously soon, or it would be too late and the consequences would be unimaginable!

He later stated in an interview that the Iranian issue will be resolved quickly, not taking too long, and energy prices will drop, perhaps even to lower levels. He indicated that he is unsure whether they are willing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago and have missed that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. has completely destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of their missiles and missile launchers, also stating that Iran should use nuclear weapons against Israel, other countries in the region, and the U.S.

The Iranian Tasnim News Agency cited sources stating that Iran formally responded to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire agreement on Wednesday evening (25th) and is awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist actions must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be enforced across all fronts and against all participating resistance organizations throughout the region.

Egypt has confirmed its participation in the U.S.-Iran mediation. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran and participating in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate the regional situation.

Schroeder pointed out that there are still various possibilities for the development of the Iran conflict, making the economic and financial market outlook difficult to discern: if oil prices are above $120 per barrel or below $90 per barrel, the global economy will present two completely different scenarios. Compared to February, the probabilities of both extreme scenarios have increased, while the originally moderate “economic stability” scenario has seen a corresponding decrease in its probability.

The bank indicated that, given the inflationary pressures brought by the oil price shock, it has raised the probability of an “overheating” economic scenario; however, this assessment remains lower than the market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; please see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【23:00】Trump: The Iranian issue will be resolved quickly; energy prices will drop; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 75 points, oil prices up 4%.

【21:30】Trump urges Iranian negotiating representatives to take negotiations seriously soon; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 218 points, oil prices up 4%.

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%; oil prices up 4%, gold prices retreat after two days of gains.

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, reported at 46521 points; S&P futures down 29 points, reported at 6611 points; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, reported at 24241 points.

【14:27】Oil prices up 2%, with New York crude oil reported at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude reported at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices retreat after two days of gains, with New York futures gold down 3%, reported at $4446; spot gold down 1.7%, reported at $4429.

【14:19】【Private Equity】Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns: The private equity market hides a “fire” crisis; failure to sell assets could trigger massive write-downs.

【13:39】【U.S. Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysts say the current rebound is driven by ceasefire speculation; expect the U.S.-Iran conflict to be hard to resolve in the short term, leading to a rise in oil prices again.

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock’s president warns investors not to underestimate the risks of the Iran war; even if “war is announced to be over tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150.

【11:43】【AI + Meta】AI investments are substantial; Meta initiates a new round of layoffs, affecting hundreds of employees.

【10:47】【Dollar Trends】Morgan Stanley: The rise of the dollar may be a “bull trap”; the market underestimates the negative impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy; expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year.

【10:15】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Federal Reserve Board member Milan raises rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, stating it is not due to oil prices or Iran factors.

【09:28】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices end a nine-day drop! Spot gold rises back above $4500; gold prices in Hong Kong rise by $1800 in one day.

【08:54】【ARM + Chips】Arm rises 8% after hours; will first sell its own chips, expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years; Meta is the first major customer.

【08:26】【New Stock IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.

【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will deliver a major gift today; Rubio and Vance participate in negotiations; the precondition is “they must not have nuclear weapons.” (continuously updated)

【08:01】【AI + AMZN】Software stocks take another hit; Amazon reportedly develops a new type of AI agent to replace some departmental functions.

$1 or less for the U.S. stock market situation on March 24====

Tuesday: U.S. reportedly seeks to negotiate with Iran on Thursday; Brent oil remains stable, Dow’s drop narrows.

Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. is in contact with Iran regarding a ceasefire plan, with Axios reporting that the U.S. and mediators are discussing the possibility of holding the highest-level talks on Thursday, but they are still waiting for Tehran’s response.

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Iranian officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations, but they confirmed that the U.S. had issued messages and proposals.

Oil prices remained cautious, with Brent futures oil up 0.2%, closing at $100.17; New York crude oil up 4.8%, closing at $92.35.

Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising 1.6%, closing at $4475.51; spot silver prices remained largely unchanged, closing at $71.2194.

The dollar index rose 0.3%, reported at 99.23, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained high at 4.36%.

U.S. stocks were weak, with the Dow at one point down 438 points, hitting a low of 45769 points, closing down 84 points at 46124 points; the S&P dropped 0.4%, closing at 6556 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, closing at 21761 points.

Trump has postponed the ultimatum by 5 days, but Israel and Iran continue to carry out sporadic attacks. The Prime Minister of Pakistan expressed willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.

Market news indicates that Iran has begun charging commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz a toll, with fees collected individually on a temporary basis, potentially reaching up to $2 million per voyage, effectively establishing an informal “toll” on this waterway. Some vessels are reportedly already paying the relevant fees, but the specific payment mechanism remains unclear, including what currency is used.

The Iranian Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday that, in close coordination with Iranian authorities, a Thai-flagged ship successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on that day.

According to Israeli media Ynet, local officials stated that the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date for ending the war with Iran, implying over a month for combat and negotiations, with Washington striving to end hostilities by the end of April.

Reports indicate that if the conflict concludes as scheduled around April 9, Trump plans to visit the area around May 14, just before Israel’s Independence Day. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating, attempting to arrange indirect communications between the U.S. and Iran, potentially conducting preliminary contacts in Pakistan this week, although both sides have not formally confirmed.

Additionally, according to reports from Russian media cited by CCTV, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on the BBC Arabic channel that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to pay significant costs for U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.

The report mentioned that Trump demanded hefty “protection fees” from Arab allies, either paying $50 trillion (approximately $39 trillion HKD) to continue the conflict, or paying $25 trillion (approximately $19.5 trillion HKD) to end the war, claiming it is compensation for “achieved results.”

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Market Trends:

【22:50】Reported that Iran is charging “tolls” for commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil prices rebound by 3%.

【21:30】Pakistan indicates readiness to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil prices rebound by 4%.

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there hope for the U.S.-Iran war? Report suggests Trump demands exorbitant protection fees: $25 trillion to end the war.

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】Report that the U.S. set April 9 as the “end date” for the war; Iran continues to deny.

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, reported at 46264 points; S&P futures down 38 points, reported at 6596 points; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, reported at 24258 points.

【14:00】Oil prices rebounded, with New York crude reported at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent crude reported at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices continued to soften, with New York futures gold down 0.9%, reported at $4400; spot gold down 1.1%, reported at $4357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices expected to be constrained in the short term due to ongoing Middle Eastern conflict; maintaining a year-end target of $6250.

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms; 17.5% guaranteed returns to compete in the enterprise AI market.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky passes away from cancer; age 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices soften after nine consecutive declines; gold prices in Hong Kong drop below $40,000.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut this season’s Switch 2 production by about 33%; production cuts may last until April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices plunge over 20% from recent highs, entering bear market territory; Morgan Stanley: capital flowing from safe-haven assets to equities, which is a positive signal for U.S. stocks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】The market is assessing oil-related product supply chains in response to the crisis; the Ministry of Finance is reportedly consulting the market on possible intervention in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI + Investments】BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge against the impact through stock holdings.

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states in investor documents that its reliance on Microsoft poses risks; what are the other risks?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to respond to risks.

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will be held starting June 8; expected to announce a series of artificial intelligence features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iran’s parliamentary speaker denies having negotiated with Trump; British destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean. (continuously updated)

$1 or less for the U.S. stock market situation on March 23====

Monday: Trump’s remarks still questioned; Dow’s gains halved to 631 points; oil prices continue to drop by 10%.

U.S. President Trump claimed to be negotiating with Iran, suspending attacks on power plants, which triggered a drop in oil prices and a rebound in the stock market. The Dow was up 1134 points at one point, reaching 46712 points; the S&P rose 2.2%, hitting 6651 points; the Nasdaq rose 2.5%, reaching 22189 points. However, the closing gains narrowed, with the Dow closing up 631 points at 46208 points; the S&P up 1.1%, closing at 6581 points; and the Nasdaq up 1.4%, closing at 21946 points.

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Oil prices fell as much as 14.1%, closing down 10%; New York crude closed at $88.13, and Brent closed at $100.5. Spot gold prices fell as much as 7%, hitting a low of $4099.18, closing down 1.9% at $4407.18.

Macquarie Group’s global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist Thierry Wizman stated, “We are cautiously skeptical of the news and tweets regarding an imminent ‘breakthrough’ this morning,” believing that the war is unlikely to last beyond April as Iran’s threats may weaken by that time, but a large-scale military action is also unlikely to end within this week.

Trump stated on the social platform Truth Social that negotiations with Iran have gone smoothly over the past two days, indicating that he has instructed the U.S. Department of War to suspend all military attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for 5 days, contingent on the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump later pointed out that both countries have reached multiple consensus points during negotiations and discussed potential leadership candidates for Iran, also stating that Iran had agreed to abandon nuclear weapons. However, he also mentioned that if U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations would continue.

However, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency later cited Iranian sources stating that there has been no negotiation between the U.S. and Iran, nor is there currently any negotiation ongoing. They also indicated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-conflict state. Another agency, Mehr, later quoted Iranian foreign ministry sources indicating that Trump’s remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for his military plans.

The Iranian foreign ministry subsequently stated that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should become a dialogue partner because the war was not initiated by Iran.

Trump further responded that negotiations took place on Sunday (22nd) evening, emphasizing that Iran is urgently seeking an agreement, admitting he doesn’t know why Iranian media would refute his statements.

T. Rowe Price indicated that after the attack on Iran, gold prices saw a typical safe-haven surge, but the gains could not be sustained, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the event. Investors did not view it as a sustained geopolitical shock but rather as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real interest rates, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which are detrimental to gold prices.

Gold prices had already accumulated considerable gains prior to the event, limiting the space for new safe-haven capital inflows. It is expected that gold price trends will continue to be influenced by both macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and central bank policy expectations will be critical, along with attention to energy prices and dollar trends. The bank still views gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks, coupled with uncertain policy prospects, provides some support for gold prices, even if short-term price trends may remain volatile.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; please see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing operations will continue; Dow rebounds by 890 points; oil prices drop by 10%.

【21:30】Trump postpones the ultimatum by 5 days, stating negotiations with Iran are ongoing; Dow rebounds by 744 points; oil prices drop by 8%.

【20:10】Iran denies negotiations are taking place; Dow futures gains narrow; oil prices drop by 5%.

【19:10】Trump: Progress in negotiations with Iran; postponing the ultimatum by 5 days; Dow futures turn up by 1207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil prices sharply drop by 10%.

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points, reported at 45693 points; S&P futures down 37 points, reported at 6521 points; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7%, reported at 23934 points.

【14:13】New York crude up 0.8%, reported at $98.97; Brent crude up 0.6%, reported at $112.85.

【14:13】【Gold Price Trends】Spot gold prices fall below $4300, erasing this year’s gains; gold prices in Hong Kong drop another $1000, falling back from recent highs by $10,000.

【13:25】【Oil Price Trends】Goldman Sachs warns the oil market faces “the largest supply shock in history”; raises Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to $85.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East “seriously damaged”; the impact of the conflict is a combination of the two oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【Yen Trends】The yen is trading at approximately 4.9 against the HKD; Japanese officials reiterate readiness to take all necessary measures to address currency fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday for Japanese and South Korean stock markets; Korean stocks drop 5%, triggering the sixth “Sidecar” mechanism this year; the Nikkei index fell by over 2600 points at one point.

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Musk: The Terafab project will be implemented in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX will jointly operate it.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】One day left until the ultimatum; Trump and Iran threaten strikes on civilian infrastructure; oil prices fluctuate. (continuously updated)

【07:30】【Outlook for the Week Ahead】Continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East; pay attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials; U.S. March manufacturing PMI to be released on Tuesday.

【07:30】As tensions rise in the Iran conflict, U.S. President Trump stated to reporters on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, and the Dow’s drop at one point exceeded 600 points; U.S. long-term bond yields reach six-month highs, with the market’s latest estimate of a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. The Dow closed down 443 points, reported at 45577 points; the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.01%.

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U.S. stock market dynamics last week; details can be found: U.S. stock closing | Trump states he does not want a ceasefire; Dow drops 443 points; U.S. long-term bond yields at six-month highs, with a 40% chance of a rate hike in September.