How to resolve the Strait of Hormuz crisis

Air superiority does not equal maritime supremacy. A wiser choice might be to declare victory and withdraw.

A tanker has anchored in the Gulf of Oman due to the high risks of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

When President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran, he was well aware that Iran might disrupt global energy markets and block the Strait of Hormuz. Now, this dilemma threatening the global economy needs to be resolved by the United States.

Trump is angry that countries—whether friends or foes—refuse to assist the U.S. in reopening the global shipping lanes “hijacked” by the Tehran regime. He warned, “We will remember this,” even suggesting it could be “extremely detrimental to NATO’s future.”

Trump claims that Iran’s naval, air, and air defense forces have “ceased to exist,” yet the U.S. Navy describes the Strait as Iran’s “death trap,” where escort operations carry extremely high risks. If Iran has been “defeated,” why can’t the world’s number one superpower open this waterway that is only about 30 miles wide?

The U.S. controls air superiority over Iran, with reconnaissance drones capable of patrolling the coastline around the clock. But air superiority does not equal maritime supremacy. Iran’s mobile anti-ship missiles are hidden in coastal mountains, using a “hit-and-run” tactic; the cheap “Shahed” drones it employs can be produced in workshops and launched from almost anywhere.

The Pentagon itself assesses that escort operations are not feasible in the short term. Moreover, Iran does not even need to strike vessels to keep the Strait blocked. The mere suspicion of sea mines or leftover missile launchers is enough for insurance companies to stop coverage or raise premiums to unaffordable levels, which can completely disrupt commercial shipping just like any weapon.

A wiser choice might be to declare victory and withdraw. Once the bombings stop, Iran will have no credible excuse to continue attacking the Gulf region. Declaring victory is not an exaggeration.

Trump has indeed made the Iranian regime pay a heavy price: its missile stockpile has been reduced by over 90%, and its supreme leader is dead.

By stopping the bombings without signing any formal peace agreement, Trump can preserve the option to strike in the future. At the same time, this would bring disaster to the Iranian regime: the clergy will face a shattered military, a collapsing economy, and most importantly—the public’s question: what was all this for?

Trump does not need to personally finish the “cleanup.” He just needs to stop actions that make him appear powerless.