Traders increase bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, believing the probability of action this year exceeds 50%

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-27T19:05:58+00:00

Amid conflicting statements during the Iran ceasefire negotiations, oil prices rose, and traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. The U.S. Treasury yield curve showed a flattening trend. The swap market predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 13 basis points before the end of October.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-27 19:05:58

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As statements on the Iran ceasefire talks conflicted with one another, oil prices rose. Traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve to raise rates, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve took a bear-flattening shape.

The swap market’s trend shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 13-basis-point rate hike before the end of October, higher than the 8-basis-point figure on Wednesday.

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