Bitunix Analyst: War Delay and Liquidity Contraction Resonance, BTC Trapped in 65K–72K Liquidation Range

On March 27, the global market exhibited a structure of ‘surface stability, internal imbalance’: the passage of trade agreements in Europe and the U.S., the U.S. lifting some sanctions, and the postponement of strikes on Iranian energy facilities aimed to maintain stable expectations in policy and diplomacy. However, actual military resources have begun to be deployed to the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have not diminished but rather been ‘priced in for later.’ At the same time, Turkey’s large-scale gold sell-off, the EU’s increase in trade costs, and Japan’s signals for currency intervention indicate that countries are synchronously using different tools to reclaim liquidity and stabilize their domestic currency systems, with global funds shifting from free flow to regional defense. More importantly, the logic of inflation has been re-anchored. Federal Reserve officials have clearly shifted the focus of risk from employment to inflation, indicating that policy tolerance is tightening, while the uncertainty of oil prices and war continues to squeeze ‘rate cut expectations’ out of the pricing system. Japan’s rising interest rates and the yen approaching intervention levels further amplify the risks of capital returning to the domestic market and the reversal of interest rate differential trading. In this context, the strengthening of the dollar is no longer just a safe haven but a result of liquidity recovery, leading the global market into a phase of passive deleveraging and asset repricing. Returning to the crypto market, BTC has completely transformed into a reflector of liquidity structure. From the current price and volume structure, the price oscillates repeatedly within a large range of about 65K–72K, with the volume distribution showing significant supply pressure above 70K, while passive accumulation continues near 65K. CVD is slowly recovering, but prices have failed to reach new highs, indicating active buying exists but lacks continuity, absorbing selling pressure rather than driving trends. Meanwhile, the large holder long-short ratio remains low, representing a market primarily focused on conservative positioning, with leverage not forming a one-sided tilt. This structure essentially corresponds to the current macro environment—capital is unwilling to exit but also unwilling to take directional risks, leading to prices being passively matched and repeatedly liquidated in liquidity-dense areas. In the short term, if the war remains in a ‘postponed but unresolved’ state and interest rate expectations continue to tighten, BTC is more likely to maintain high-frequency oscillations within the range, completing chip transfers by sweeping liquidity between 65K and 72K; however, a true trend breakthrough will still require a consistent change in the three macro variables, rather than being driven by a single event.