When you have time, let's talk. In general, before the market starts, it can be quite distressing, especially when there are divergences in market uncertainty about some important events. What everyone is waiting for now is the presidential election in the United States.

Having been in the world of coins for 8 years, I have experienced two important elections, I have written about previous trends, the short-term price of the coin will be affected by a relatively large Fluctuation, but the opinion of the two candidates on the Cryptocoins, as demonstrated by previous historical facts, will not have a big impact long term.
But this time it's different, in just a few years, the attitude of these pro politicians towards BTC has made a 180-degree turn, which is really amazing. Many people are interested in knowing what impact the election of one candidate or another will have on the short-term BTC trend.
First, I still believe that the price of BTC will continue to rise. The main logic is the reduction of interest rates, which will attract capital flows. Money will not flow all at once, but each interest rate reduction meeting will undoubtedly gradually raise the price of various assets.
Guess what, I tend to lean towards the choice of Trump, because he has publicly expressed his support for the development of Crypto Assets, and it is necessary for the United States to take the lead in the encryption world with BTC as number one. Besides, with the support of Musk, it is likely that if he is successfully elected, hot money from the market will flow into the crypto world, and BTC is likely to quickly break a new record, hopefully reaching the 100,000 mark before the end of the year, at the latest by early next year.
If Harris is elected, it will not prevent BTC from reaching new highs, it will only be delayed a bit, I guess until the rate reduction meeting in March or April. Why do I think this way? After all, the Democratic Party also accepts the development of Crypto Assets, the last time they reached new highs and BTC and ETH ETFs were approved was during their government. Therefore, in theory, there should not be a sudden big fall or another black swan event, but it is possible that the price will retreat significantly to clear out weak hands and then rise directly. Market makers really like this kind of strategy and are experts in manipulating these situations, so I guess the projects already have contingency plans to face this situation.
The market actually does not care about who is elected, it cares about certainty. Only when a lot of information is clarified, the funds on hold will shoot their last bullet. I also maintain a 20% position and wait to see what happens.
These days the market has been sideways, indicating that it is currently a fund accumulation market. As we enter the mid-term bullish market, the market has already absorbed the initial bull funds, the intensity is not enough, there is no frantic subsequent fund flow, it can only absorb accumulation funds. The market in January 2021 is very similar to the current one. When conventional tokens do not rise, they often fall sharply, leading to a significant fall of altcoins, allowing accumulation funds to concentrate again in conventional tokens, that is, growing thanks to absorbing accumulation. At the beginning of this year, the BTC market also replicated this trend, after completing the correction, it attracted incremental funds with the BTC rebound, and then reached new highs.
During the mid to late bullish market, it is generally a market of frantic rise. The reason it is specifically mentioned is because the characteristics of the rising market are rise in general, it's just a matter of who rises more and who rises less. It differs from the stock market in that it is about whether there is a general rise, and in the rising market, it is not necessary to rely on stocks to feed on stocks, but it feeds on subsequent rises. Although in a certain period of time, it may seem that conventional tokens have risen a lot and seem to run out of fuel, there is no need for them to fall sharply and cause other alternative cryptocurrencies to collapse. As long as the rising funds keep up, they can at least avoid major drops. Of course, this time we will not see a widespread rise in the bullish market.
Due to the lack of capital in this bullish market, the sudden pump that broke the rules and made a new high has been in Whipsaw for 7 months. Both for veterans and newcomers, it has been an agony, to the point that many have lost patience and confidence, and doubt if the bullish market still exists. If we review the situation from March until now, apart from the absolute dominance of BTC, after a brief period of activity in some hot spots, the rest has been depressed and has even reached new lows. This form of Whipsaw has not occurred in the history of the crypto world. In the events of September, we discussed with everyone that this bullish market could be a slow bull, and a slow bull with a large range of fluctuation, which makes it even more complicated and bumpy. According to the current trend, the slow bull is not friendly to the retail investor, and is more likely to cause losses, as most losers are due to psychological imbalances and misinformation.
So why is everyone advised to maintain confidence? It is the most fundamental logic, interest rate cuts. If you look closely at recent market data, some strong coins no longer fall when BTC withdraws, which is actually a signal, while BTC.D continues to hold at 59%, indirectly demonstrating that now is a good time to choose and distribute AltCoin. In November and December, there will be rate reduction meetings, so now we have to wait a little and see if this is a fuel booster or a Black Swan Event.
The buddies who are already on board can sit down, nothing is suggested to those who have not yet boarded. A few days ago, a buddy and I analyzed that BTC would fall below 40,000. I asked him how he understood it, and he told me that the BRICS have already reached a protocol to rebuild the monetary system, abandoning the Americans. The world balance is changing, the dominance of the dollar will surely collapse, and tying BTC to the dollar will definitely cause problems...
No matter whether the logic is correct or not, is there a probability that the backwardatio will be 40,000? Yes, I believe the probability is less than 5%, but even if the backwardatio falls below 40,000, it cannot be because of what he understands. It is likely that those who have such thoughts have seen too many videos on douyin, and they always like to watch some influential Chinese bloggers there. It is true that these videos look exciting, but they do not help your life and wallet in any way.
As an ordinary person, I also love my country and hope that our country will continue to improve. However, economic development follows a process and requires accumulation. It cannot be developed simply by shouting slogans every day. I prefer to respect the objective facts and strengths of others, fix my own land, and settle my own accounts. Let's just observe the general affairs.
Capital is your three-acre land, I suggest that in this bullish market, you should first make money to protect the capital and then make money. No matter how much the final profit is, I suggest that you seriously prepare a response plan, respect each of your trades, and when you buy, remember to think about when and at what price to sell. Don't go crazy when the price goes up, and don't get nervous when the price goes down. And don't act impulsively and be greedy to engage in swing trading and contracts!
Bullish market bet on the decline Do not buy rise, Bearish market Do not sell rise Do not buy fall. But those who want to make money quickly and get rich overnight in the world of cryptocurrencies, the results are likely not to be very good, this is a cosmic law. Of course, the prerequisite is that you must believe in the cosmic law and causality, if you do not believe, then I can't do anything...