Current Situation:

Bitcoin plunged to $76600 last night, causing $955 million in liquidations across the board. Many shouted '312 reappears,' but the old-school confidently stated:

This time it's not really 2020! Three points of hard logic support the scene:
1. Institutional daddy really protects the market with real money and silver
The $30 billion ETF funds lie flat (15% of the float), MicroStrategy holds 200,000 BTC, equivalent to $120 billion in locked chips. These big shots are not retail investors. Will they sell off if it drops 10%? Non-existent! The US state of Florida directly regards BTC as a strategic reserve, and policy-driven buying is ready to enter the market at any time for a shopping spree.

2. Exchange Bullet Enough
The exchange's reserve fund is now five times that of 2020, with USDT market cap hitting $200 billion (only $6 billion that year). Does the Dog Exchange want to crash the market? The market can handle it! Look at the support orders at 76k last night, Asians and European and American institutions are scrambling to buy the dip, with a trading volume of up to $39 million, it's obvious that the main players are playing 'fake wash trading'.

3. The lever dog is almost dead
In 2020, the average leverage per capita was 50 times. Now the average leverage in the entire market is 3-5 times. Even if it drops to $70,000, the amount of liquidation will be one zero less than before. Exchanges have learned their lesson, reducing leverage in advance and liquidating positions in batches to prevent a repeat of the 'kill more, die more' tragedy!
Three major pitfalls must be closely watched
1. Trump Black Swan
This old man threatens to impose tariffs. The U.S. stock market collapsed last night (Nasdaq fell by 4%), and the big cake followed suit. If the interest rate cut in June fails, the surge in the U.S. dollar will further weigh on the market.

2. 150,000 BTC nuclear bombs in Mentougou
A $12 billion sell-off pressure, as long as 10% is thrown at the exchange, it will break through the $70,000 defense line in minutes. The on-chain whales have been frequently transferring coins recently, and traditional advice is to install a monitoring plug-in (such as Arkham). If there is any abnormality, run away immediately!

3. Miners' rebellion risk
Miners' holdings hit a three-year low after the halving, and chicken farms that can't even afford electricity are dumping their goods. If the computing power drops another 30%, the selling pressure could push down another 5%-10%.

In 2025, 312 is considered a 'monkey market shock', dropping 15% can V-rebound, the dog market maker is waiting to harvest those brainless longs!
Remember: not buying the dip in a market crash = wasting a crisis, but definitely don't rush in blindly!
Tonight's CPI data + tomorrow morning's actions on Mentougou chain are the key to victory or defeat.
That being said, it's not afraid of ten thousand, just afraid of one in ten thousand (stacked armor)
What if #F1极速冲刺，享$50,000大奖 really happens?
​
Position Management:
Leverage ≤3 times: High leverage contracts were the main cause of liquidation in the 312 incident. The current market is highly volatile, with leverage of more than 3 times posing extremely high risks.
Spot trading is the main focus: Spot trading can withstand volatility during a crash, while contracts may go to zero. It is recommended to hold mainstream coins such as BTC, ETH, etc.

Key Operation Node:
Breaking below $80,000 and cutting positions: Bitcoin at $80,000 and Ethereum at $2000 are short-term bullish defenses, and breaking through requires decisive stop-loss.
Buy the dip by 15%: If BTC drops to below 70,000, you can gradually buy spot (such as 70,000, 65,000, 60,000 in batches).

On-chain data monitoring:
Keep a close eye on whale addresses: Address with more than 1000 BTC often indicates market changes, monitor in real-time with Arkham or Nansen.
USDT stock breaks through 60 billion: Stablecoin reserves on exchanges surge, usually a signal for major players to buy the dip.

Policy Response:
Risk aversion before interest rate cuts: If the Fed releases dovish signals (such as confirming rate cuts in June), you can advance layout the L2 track (such as OP, STRK).
Trump's tweets warn: His tariff policy often triggers huge market shocks, avoid opening positions 2 hours before and after major statements.

Psychological construction:
Do not catch falling knives: Do not blindly bottom fish in the early stages of a crash, wait until the trading volume shrinks to 50% of the recent average before taking action.
Avoid FOMO: After the violent drop of formula 312, there is often a violent rebound (such as the V-shaped reversal in March 2020), but it is necessary to confirm the breakthrough of the previous high with increased volume before chasing. #近期加密市场观察 #市场触底了吗？