Nova moeda taiwanesa quebra várias barreiras, a saída de capitais estrangeiros aumenta a pressão de depreciação — O futuro depende do fluxo de fundos

Taiwan stock and foreign exchange markets both under pressure. Amid ongoing withdrawals by foreign investors, the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) against the US dollar briefly broke through the 31.5 level during trading, closing at 31.475, a single-day depreciation of 9.5 points, hitting a near seven-month low, with daily trading volume expanding to 20.56 billion USD. Simultaneously, the Taiwan stock market also faced selling pressure, plunging over 500 points at one point during the session and closing down 330 points.

Foreign capital outflows main cause, short-term weak trend hard to change

The NTD opened flat at 31.38 and immediately weakened. By midday, it closed at 31.485, with the decline widening in the afternoon. Forex analysts pointed out that the fundamental driver behind the synchronized decline of stocks and forex is the massive exit of foreign capital. Following a net sell of 48.9 billion TWD in Taiwan stocks on the previous trading day, foreign selling continued, increasing demand for USD and putting pressure on the NTD.

Forex expert Li Qizhan believes that after losing the 31.5 support line, the NTD will enter a short-term oscillation with a bias toward weakness. If Taiwan stocks drop more than 500 points again tomorrow, the depreciation pressure on the forex market could further intensify, possibly approaching the 31.6 level. Bank officials expect that the NTD still has room to depreciate before the end of the year, but the 31.5 range remains within the central bank’s tolerance zone and is also a level relatively acceptable to exporters.

Multiple negative factors overlapping, regional currencies generally under pressure

The factors pushing the NTD depreciation are not limited to local foreign capital withdrawals. Uncertainty in international markets also hampers the NTD’s performance. Concerns about the outlook of the AI industry have increased, leading to sharp fluctuations in US tech stocks, which in turn impact Taiwan’s tech heavyweight stocks. As Christmas holidays approach, foreign investors are gradually entering holiday cycles, and their portfolio adjustments and capital withdrawals are intensifying. As long as foreign capital continues to exit Taiwan stocks, the NTD faces constraints on depreciation.

Regionally, the NTD’s predicament is not an isolated case. The Korean won against the USD has been declining more sharply since December, approaching the 1500 mark, with monthly declines possibly reaching the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, prompting South Korea’s government to hold emergency meetings to formulate responses. The US dollar index slightly retreated to around 98.2 today, while the RMB midpoint rate slightly appreciated.

Market outlook focus: US economic data and global capital flows

Looking ahead, market attention is focused on upcoming US economic data releases, which will serve as important references for the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the possibility of interest rate cuts next year, directly influencing global capital flows and forex trends. Over the past two trading days, Taiwan stocks have declined by more than 660 points, and the simultaneous bottoming of stocks and forex has heightened market caution. Investors’ uncertainty about the future performance of the US economy has increased, and in the short term, the NTD will continue to face a weak trend.