《Lawyer Explains Legal Red Lines of Prediction Markets: Easily Involving Illegal Gambling Operations in China》Crypto legal lawyer Jin Jianzhi systematically analyzed the legal characterization and risks of blockchain prediction markets across different jurisdictions. He pointed out that the United States typically categorizes prediction markets as financial derivatives, while mainland China and most countries define them as gambling. Under China's legal framework, prediction market projects operating domestically are essentially equivalent to operating illegal gambling establishments; KOLs who promote through advertising fees, and personnel providing payment or operational support to platforms may all be deemed accomplices in illegal gambling operations; ordinary participants generally do not constitute criminal offenses, but in cases of large betting amounts, they may face administrative penalties. Combining regulatory logic and cases from mainland China and Hong Kong, Jin Jianzhi noted that politically sensitive topics and elections significantly increase enforcement risks, and he judges that it will be difficult for compliant prediction markets to emerge in China in the short term. Read full article: