#以太坊大户持仓变化 【0109Market Quick Update】Washout or Opportunity? Here's How to Interpret the Long-Short Divergence

Today's fear index spiked to 41, and market sentiment is definitely getting tight. After the initial jobless claims data came out, the Fed's probability of a rate cut in January plummeted to 11.6%, short-term liquidity is tightening, and many investors' buying appetite has been dampened a bit.

But that's not the whole picture. Looking at the positive side, Florida's HB 1039 advancement has opened up imaginative space for sovereign fund entry; institutions haven't been idle either, with Bitmine directly throwing $176 million into ETH staking, and stablecoin trading volumes hitting all-time highs. To be honest, the support on the plate is still there.

**$BTC's Rhythm**

Yesterday morning there was repeated sawing around 91000, with the daily chart already down three days. From the 4-hour level, although the moving averages have crossed over bearishly, the volume of the decline is actually shrinking — which suggests that quite a few people are taking positions in the 90000 to 90800 range. Here OI is maintaining high levels, both bulls and bears don't want to back down, and there's a high chance of seeing "needle-like" rapid fluctuations.

As long as the 90200 support line holds, the overall logic is still a normal correction in an uptrend. Near-term overhead pressure is at 92500, and to truly confirm the adjustment is complete, we need to hold steady at 94500.

**$ETH's Challenge**

In comparison, Ethereum looks a bit lacklustre, following Bitcoin's lead, with price hovering around 3115, and the Bollinger Band already opening downward. Although Bitmine's large staking is a positive, unfortunately the plate lacks coordinated strength, and funds are scattered.

The support focus has recently shifted down to 3050. If the big coin can truly hold steady, Ethereum has a chance to build a local double bottom in the 3080 to 3100 price range. Operationally, it's still recommended to wait for right-side signal confirmation before acting, don't rush to catch the knife, and the overhead resistance to watch is 3200.

**Tonight is the Watershed**

The nonfarm employment data is coming out tonight, which is today's most critical turning point. If the data comes in stronger than expected, the rate-cut expectations will be further suppressed. Also need to pay attention to Tether's launch of the gold stablecoin concept, the RWA sector has had quite a bit of movement recently, and Florida's legislation is a potential major positive in the near term, so keep a close eye on it.

$SOL