#比特币价格预测与分析 After seeing this VanEck report, my first reaction is: the data does support rally expectations. A 4% decline in hashrate is the largest drop since April, and historically there's a 65% probability of positive returns within 90 days after hashrate compression periods—that win rate is quite good for professional traders.

However, there's a detail worth examining: rally expectations don't equal guaranteed surges. James Wynn's adjustment from "doubling to 175,000" shrinking down to "at least a 10% rebound" shows that market expectations are being recalibrated. My understanding is that the decrease in mining activity does release bullish technical signals, but the magnitude should be discounted.

From a copy-trading perspective, the opportunity now lies in discerning how traders view this type of rebound: aggressive traders will chase rallies directly trying to capture the entire move, while conservative traders will wait for pullbacks to support levels before entering. I prefer tracking accounts with clear stop-loss settings—after all, rebounds don't necessarily move in straight lines, and the risk of intermediate pullbacks also needs to be considered.

The hashrate cycle logic can serve as one screening dimension for my copy-trading, but it's definitely not the only reason. Experience tells me that no matter how clean a single technical indicator signal looks, it needs to be verified against capital flows and market sentiment. Now is a good time to observe.