Ожидания снижения процентной ставки Федеральной резервной системы остаются стабильными: данные по занятости вне сельского хозяйства должны показать драматические неожиданные результаты, чтобы изменить ритм

【Cryptoverse】Currently, the market has developed quite firm expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path this year—two cuts of 25 basis points each, with the first anticipated to commence in late April. How solid is this pricing? Even if the U.S. December non-farm employment report released this Friday shows a minor surprise, it would be difficult to shake this expectation.

According to the latest analysis, Goldman Sachs expects this report to show employment growth of approximately 70,000, a figure that essentially aligns with broad market expectations. While informal market whispers suggest possible modest upside risks, even if the data comes in near expectations, it would actually reinforce rather than disrupt the current macroeconomic narrative—this demonstrates just how confident the market is about the rate-cutting cycle.

To genuinely alter the timing of rate cuts, data would need to show “quite dramatic” surprises. Specifically, from a market perspective, non-farm employment data landing in the 70,000 to 100,000 range would be the most ideal outcome, as it would reflect continued economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns or threatening the launch of the rate-cutting cycle—this fully supports the assessment that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than facing a sudden hard landing.

But what if the data comes in below 50,000? That would be interpreted as falling below the employment growth level needed to maintain economic stability, and investors would likely become uneasy about the prospect of a sharp slowdown in growth. At the other extreme, if data exceeds 125,000, it could prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, pushing the anticipated cutting date back to June.

In short, the market’s current consensus on the Federal Reserve’s policy path is quite robust, and absent truly significant deviations in employment data, this expectation would be unlikely to see major adjustments in the near term.