#以太坊大户持仓变化 ETH Technical Analysis: Short-term Rally Lacks Momentum, Bearish Opportunities Emerging

Ethereum has been oscillating repeatedly within the 3052-3300 range, but from the hourly chart perspective, the price has been suppressed below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper and lower band width narrowing. This often signals an impending expansion of volatility and directional choice.

From the MACD indicator, the blue line below the zero axis shows signs of lifting, with a golden cross of the yellow line imminent. However, this rally appears to lack significant strength — comparing trading volume reveals the clue: transaction volume during the rebound has clearly shrunk, representing a typical low-volume rally phenomenon with questionable sustainability.

Price action further confirms this point. From the descent from 3300 to now, the rally has not even managed to break above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a weakening pattern evident. Combining technical setup and volume analysis, the signs of bears controlling the situation are quite obvious.

The core logic of the trading strategy is as follows: when price rebounds to the 3155-3165 area, we can build short positions in batches. This range served as a small platform support formed in the earlier period and is also close to the Bollinger Bands middle band, making the risk-to-reward ratio more reasonable. Set the stop loss decisively above 3205. Once price breaks through this level, the short-term downtrend structure is broken, and you should stop out and admit the mistake promptly.

Regarding downside targets: in the near term, the previous low around 3080, with more distant targets pointing toward the 3050 level.

The overall assessment is that the market currently exhibits a bear-dominated, weak-rebound situation. Rather than repeatedly guessing at the bottom, it's better to wait patiently for the moment when rebound momentum exhausts. Strictly follow the plan, manage risk well, and let market action verify the rest.