Since the beginning of 2026, the environment Bitcoin is operating in differs significantly from early-stage rebounds in previous cycles. Recently, the technical picture appears to be in a correction phase. In the short term, we can adopt a slightly more aggressive strategy, but from a larger structural perspective, the conditions supporting a sustained rally remain insufficient. History teaches us that once price breaks below the annual moving average, the subsequent consolidation zone often becomes more challenging. Combined with weakening inflows of new capital and decelerating fund entry speed, this market cycle appears to be entering an environment that demands careful opportunity selection and strict adherence to trading discipline.

Super mega whales are reducing positions, but their tactics are quite sophisticated. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have been methodically distributing their chips. Following the launch of spot ETFs in early 2024, these mega whales even added to positions during the early-year correction. The turning point arrived in October 2024—their actions shifted from "accumulation" to "distribution." To date, this group has cumulatively sold approximately $61 billion worth of Bitcoin, and net selling has continued over the past 30 days.

Interestingly, most of this selling pressure has been absorbed by mid-sized whales, resulting in price action characterized by back-and-forth choppy trading at elevated levels, rather than the kind of accelerated rallies or panic-driven capitulation. Compared to the indiscriminate selling that followed the spring 2021 peak, this round of distribution is far more orderly and resembles the typical behavior of sophisticated capital in the later stages of a cycle—a signal pointing to Bitcoin likely having entered a cyclical top zone.

From the perspective of incremental capital inflows, momentum is weakening, and price has already approached critical support levels.