## On-chain Data Reveals Dramatic Shift in Holder Structure, BTC Market Risk Escalates

Bitcoin's on-chain data has shown significant changes recently. According to CoinMarketCap statistics, since entering October, more than 400,000 BTC have flowed from seasoned holders to newly created addresses, marking a cycle high in transfer scale. Meanwhile, BTC inflows to exchanges remain at elevated levels, with current prices fluctuating around $90.51K, having touched $85,000 at the beginning of the month, reflecting obvious market sentiment instability.

**Risks Behind Market Structure Transformation**

Renowned economist Peter Schiff points out that this shift in holder composition implies deeper market fragility. The wealth transfer from seasoned investors (commonly known as "hodlers") to novice investors means market decision-making power is gradually shifting from experienced participants to emotion-driven groups. The damage from this transformation is not only reflected in increased supply liquidity, but more critically in the significantly elevated speed and intensity of panic sentiment propagation.

On-chain indicator data from CryptoQuant further validates this assessment. Following the large-scale transfer, Bitcoin's fund flows to major exchanges have maintained elevated levels, indicating that selling pressure from large holders remains evident. Supply distribution charts stratified by wallet age demonstrate that young wallets (new addresses) are rapidly increasing their BTC proportion.

**Historical Patterns and Current Warning Signs**

From the historical cycles of crypto markets, the current holder transformation follows typical late-cycle characteristics: early participants begin systematic profit-taking, handing chips to later market entrants. Peter Schiff warns that once this batch of novice investors suffers losses and desperately seeks to exit, markets could easily play out sharp corrections exceeding previous bear market cycles.

It is worth noting that some analysts believe institutional capital participation has partially absorbed the selling pressure, which may buffer the negative impact of structural transformation to some extent. However, whether this buffer can be sustained remains to be verified.

**Key Indicators for Traders to Monitor**

For participants, focus should be placed on monitoring critical support levels and on-chain indicator trends. BTC supply stratification by address age, exchange net inflows, and whale wallet movements are all important references for assessing market risk levels. When novice holder proportions rise rapidly, the probability of stampedes during price volatility increases accordingly. Peter Schiff's reminder provides crucial risk alerts for both long-term position holders and short-term traders.