The first US non-farm employment data for 2026 will be released tonight. The market expects an increase of 60,000 jobs, down from the previous reading of 64,000. While this data may appear unremarkable, it directly influences the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-cutting pace, USD exchange rate fluctuations, and subsequently impacts Bitcoin's short-term price movements.

Currently, BTC is oscillating repeatedly around 90,500, with investor sentiment clearly cautious. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has attempted to break through 95,000 three times without firmly establishing above that level, with a low of 89,300, indicating selling pressure remains overhead. If it can break through the 92,000 level, it will trigger liquidation of $1.15 billion in short positions, which could spark a short-term rebound. Conversely, breaking below 89,000 would put $944 million in long positions at risk, with 87,000 becoming a level for reassessment.

Community engagement has cooled somewhat, and institutional inflows are slowing, indicating the market is in a wait-and-see mode. In the short term, swing traders should focus on the 92k to 104k range, but need to be vigilant about chain-reaction effects following a break below 87k. Dual consideration of macroeconomic data and technical analysis is essential to capitalize on opportunities in this period of volatility.