Bitcoin poked through $90,000 and then pulled back with a long lower wick—this is a common tactic used by whales to create panic and shake out retail traders. Today the price slowly climbed back to around $91,500, looks like a reversal is coming? Don't believe it. I dug through on-chain data and K-line details and discovered the real risk signals are just starting to emerge.

**BTC's make-or-break point in the short term**

The $90,600 level is extremely critical—it's the defense line for short-cycle timeframes (4-hour moving average 60 plus the previous chip-dense zone). Interestingly, on-chain whale accounts haven't fled; instead they're clustered placing buy orders between $90,000 and $90,500, suggesting they're bottom-fishing. But the current problem is the price is stuck in an awkward position:

Below there's support at $90,600, and further down is $89,000; above there's resistance from $92,600 to $93,400, where the bears hammered it a couple days ago and haven't fully retreated. To achieve a real upside breakout, we need to see volume confirmation.

Tonight the US CPI data drops—this will be a turning point. If the data shows inflation higher than expected, Bitcoin might fake a breakout above $92,600 before getting hammered back down; conversely, if the data is more benign, we'd likely see a volume-driven push toward $93,500. The short-term strategy is don't chase highs—setting low longs near $90,600 is more reliable.

**Ethereum's rebound looks weak and powerless**

Ethereum's rebound looks like wet noodles, can't even hold steady above $3,100. On-chain staking data reveals the tell: only 80,000 ETH queued to withdraw, but over 900,000 ETH queued to lock up. Whales are adding positions while retail is capitulating—that's the current market sentiment.

The $3,080 to $3,100 support zone is now the observation window for gauging sentiment. To truly reverse the situation, the $3,160 level must be broken; otherwise this rebound is just a rebound.