#Gate广场创作者新春激励

💥 Non-farm data shows extremes again, Fed rate cut in January is already set in stone!

December employment data turned into a drama: only 50,000 new jobs added, previous month slashed by 76,000, the worst performance since the pandemic. The hiring market completely withered, adding only 584,000 for the entire year, private sector averaging less than 61,000 monthly—the weakest since 2003!

But that's not even the most absurd part: the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.4%. What's going on? The answer is heartbreaking—it's not that more jobs appeared, but rather more and more people have simply stopped looking for work. Some big voices even say this signals the Fed's "lying flat" trend.

The only thing that looks decent is wage growth at 3.8%, which did outpace inflation. But fundamentally, the entire labor market is like a patient artificially propped up—solid on the surface but shaky underneath.

Market reaction was direct: interest rate swap markets saw January rate cut probability instantly drop to zero, with all bets on the first rate cut moved to June. Two-year Treasury yields surged, traders completely entered "wait-and-see" mode, nobody dares to move.

PGIM frankly stated the Fed might "skip one," while Natixis believes the entire rate cut pace needs to slow down. The suspense ultimately points to March CPI data—that's the Fed's real litmus test. Can rate cuts start in June? It all depends on whether inflation plays nice. The dollar's future remains uncertain!