The latest U.S. labor data release has genuinely left the market a bit bewildered.

**The numbers speak for themselves—**

Nonfarm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, falling short of expectations of 60,000 to 73,000. This month wasn't the only disappointment—prior data took hits too—November was revised down to 56,000, and October was directly revised to negative 173,000. Combined, October and November accounted for 76,000 fewer job opportunities. Looking at the full-year scorecard, 584,000 nonfarm payrolls is the worst annual performance since 2020. The unemployment rate did produce a surprise though—4.4%, actually lower than the expected 4.5% and the prior 4.6%. Average hourly earnings held steady at 0.3% month-over-month, basically in line with expectations, nothing noteworthy.

**What does this mean for markets and policy?**

The Fed's rate-cut expectations have collapsed outright. The probability of a January rate cut is nearly zero, and traders are now betting the Fed will hold steady and continue monitoring the trajectory of employment and inflation. Looking ahead, full-year rate-cut expectations have turned cautious—no one dares guarantee what the pace will look like.

On the asset side, the U.S. dollar is under pressure and retreating, while gold is seizing the opportunity to strengthen. U.S. stock futures edged up slightly, but market attention has already shifted to another phenomenon—companies are neither hiring much nor laying off much, creating a "low hiring, low firing" stalemate that signals a dangerous risk: jobless expansion. Whether seasonal patterns and holidays are disrupting hiring momentum, or whether companies have a dim long-term view of demand, remains to be seen and requires continued observation of labor supply and productivity trends to draw conclusions.