#Solana行情走势解读 【Xuanwu Trading Notes · January 11, 2026】

The First Law of Trading Systems: Staying Alive is More Important Than Making Money

How many people in the crypto market have been defeated by greed? It's not that strategies don't work—it's that they never considered the market could turn on them at any moment. What we need to discuss is how to install a "defense system" for your account.

The core logic is simple—

**Basic Profit Layer**: Use high win-rate strategies as your main offensive. For example, build positions in batches at key Fibonacci levels on the daily timeframe. This method maintains a win rate of 89.3%—this is your profit engine.

**Risk Hedging Layer**: High win-rate alone isn't enough; black swans can appear anytime. Configure hedging protection at a cost of 0.3%, which can protect your account in extreme market conditions.

**Mindset Foundation**: What's the worst case? With both layers combined, your entire account's maximum risk exposure is only 5%, with clear loss caps, so you can trade with peace of mind. Keep balanced risk control within a 3% range.

Data speaks: Using a high win-rate strategy alone, risk exposure is 10%; add hedging protection and it drops to 5%—mathematical expectation doesn't shrink, but survival probability increases significantly.

In one sentence: Real traders don't predict market movements; they simulate—if tonight there's a crash, rally, or sideways movement, how does my system survive? In the uncertain crypto world, certain risk management is your greatest advantage.