#BTC价格波动 Seeing Hankimoku-natsu's perspective, I'm reminded of several lessons from last year's BTC volatility. Back then, I was also a steadfast bull until a sharp decline taught me what "overconfidence" really means.

The current situation is actually quite similar — BTC is indeed oscillating, but the key is distinguishing whether this is establishing a bottom or a bull trap. Hankimoku-natsu's point that we shouldn't be excessively bearish over the next 1-2 months makes sense to me, but I want to add a prerequisite condition: the premise is that ETF outflows don't spike significantly. If this low-probability event occurs, breaking below 80,500 or even dropping to 71,000 is entirely possible.

I've seen too many people go all-in before the trend becomes clear, only to be caught off guard. Bitcoin's oscillation range has now narrowed to an extreme — essentially, it's making a choice — but whether that choice is upward or downward depends on the appetite of institutions and capital flows.

The safest approach is: don't chase highs before the trend clarifies, and don't get FOMO'd by short-term gains. Set your stops, protect your principal, and wait for adjustment signals in March-April before making decisions. Those promises of quick riches in the short term should be ignored — staying in the game longer is more valuable than making quick money.