2026 Everybody is buying $I'm fucking here now, let me do a simple analysis.

At the beginning of 2026, the US made big news in Venezuela, and Greenland's popularity is also soaring. It seems to point to one issue: after the tariff issue temporarily truce for a year in 2025, geopolitically the US will focus on its nearshore issues.

In 2025, the US passed two bills: the "Big and Beautiful Act" and the "Genius Act". The core of both revolves around US dollar expansion and expanding US debt. Combined together, they envision bundling newly issued debt with cryptocurrency, where cryptocurrency becomes the credit backing for newly issued US debt, avoiding damage to dollar credit from currency expansion. 2026 will continue this theme, with US debt continuing to expand, and the credit backing problem for newly issued dollars will run throughout the year.

That's why there are Venezuela and Greenland hot events at the start of the year. Trump declared an emergency state for Venezuelan oil revenues. Venezuela's oil and Greenland's resources, actually like cryptocurrency, can all serve as credit collateral for newly issued dollars.

After resolving the collateral problem, the Federal Reserve can then begin aggressive rate cuts. Otherwise, premature rate cuts would only further weaken dollar credit, causing further skyrocketing of non-sovereign credit currencies and many assets, spiraling out of control.

Combined with current progress, the existing $41 trillion debt ceiling will be reached by the end of April. The first half faces further negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling, while the Fed chair transitions in May. If progress on dollar collateral resolves smoothly, the second half of 2026 could see the beginning of significant rate cuts, expected to exceed 100bp, along with rapid US debt expansion.

If nearshore issues don't progress well and cannot resolve the collateral problem for newly issued dollars, the 2026 rate cut process may continue the entanglement of the previous two years. Perhaps only two rate cuts totaling 50bp for the full year.

The US dollar index, as an indicator reflecting the relative strength of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (excluding the Chinese yuan), overall will maintain a stable with upward trend in 2026, and the dollar smile curve will enter the upward section of the latter half. The dollar will continue to strengthen.

The above dollar trends will significantly affect the performance of other currency assets including the Chinese yuan, gold, and commodities. Understanding the logic of dollar changes is first priority, so the US dollar is the first installment of 2026 annual outlook. Meanwhile, the US has always been managing the game, tightening the dollar, at least won't lose.

#加密 # Web3 #BTC #ETH